If Russia is disconnected from the SWIFT interbank data transmission system, then there will be a massive economic downturn in many countries of the world. This opinion was expressed by the future head of the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz. According to him, disconnecting from SWIFT is comparable to a nuclear explosion in the market. A similar opinion was expressed earlier by other German politicians and experts. Russia's disconnection from the SWIFT interbank transaction data exchange system will cause negative consequences for the global economy. This was stated by the future chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Germany, Friedrich Merz, reports DPA.
“If something like this happens, I think there will be a massive economic downturn,” the politician said.
“This could be a nuclear bomb for the capital market, as well as goods and services,” he added.
The politician urged "not to touch SWIFT". Trade between Russia and Europe could also suffer, he said.
The United States considers anti-Russian sanctions using SWIFT as one of the measures to influence Moscow in the event of an escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. Democratic senators have prepared a bill that would impose blocking secondary sanctions on SWIFT and the Russian Financial Messaging System (SPFS), an analogue of SWIFT.
On January 10, Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources, reported that the largest countries in Europe fear the consequences of tough economic sanctions against Russia because of the potential harm to their own economies.
The European allies of the United States are united in their intention to prevent a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, "this group [of countries] is still making an economic and legal assessment of possible sanctions."
The interlocutors of the agency drew attention to the fact that representatives of European states have different views on relations with Russia, there is still no complete unanimity on this issue among them, so it will be difficult to develop specific measures against the Russian Federation.
On January 15, the German publication Tagesshau reported in an analytic article that Russia could mitigate the damage from Western sanctions by using SPFS as a "gimmick".
“This (the Russian analogue of SWIFT — ) is unlikely to catch on internationally, but information technology expert Ian Oetting suspects that it could be a ruse,” the article says.
According to Otting, Russia used in its payment system a structure and data format similar to SWIFT. The programs are almost the same and it is easy to make them compatible. It follows from this that Western banks can use SWIFT to send money to neighboring states of the Russian Federation, and then the funds will be transferred to Russia through the Russian payment system SPFS.
However, if Russia is cut off from SWIFT, then Russian banks will lose the ability to conduct transactions with other financial institutions. This will deal a huge blow not only to the Russian Federation, but to the whole world, German analysts are convinced. Due to the inability to carry out transactions, oil and gas supplies from Russia may stop, which will lead to a sharp increase in hydrocarbon prices, the Tagesshau material says.
On January 14, the chairman of the Eastern Committee of the German Economy, Oliver Hermes, said that Russia's disconnection from the SWIFT system would create significant problems for the economies of the Western countries.
“Russia is much more integrated into the world economy than, for example, Iran. Therefore, its disconnection from SWIFT will create significant problems for us in the market,” said Hermes.
He stressed that if Russia is nevertheless disconnected from the international payment system, Moscow will strengthen its economic ties with Beijing. As a result of this development of events, the West "will not receive any gain."
Earlier, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that disconnecting the country from the SWIFT system would not be beneficial for Western countries. As the minister explained, if Russia is disconnected from the system, Europe will have to abandon Russian goods.
“SWIFT is a system of information messages about transactions, whether at home or abroad. Who benefits from switching off SWIFT? Nobody. Only, as they say, they annoyed themselves. Russia is a participant in the international market,” he stressed.
According to Olga Skorobogatova, First Deputy Head of the Bank of Russia, the exclusion of the Russian Federation from the SWIFT system would also be unprofitable for other member countries and regulatory banks. “SWIFT is a cooperative, more than 100 countries participate there. There are currently no statements from SWIFT about any intentions in part of Russia. We hope that this will not happen, because it is unprofitable for other countries and other regulators in terms of the business that our countries are doing, ”she said at the end of last year.
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