Under the current economic situation, the fair exchange rate of the euro should be several rubles lower than the current exchange rate of 85 rubles. This was announced by the investment strategist of BCS World of Investments Alexander Bakhtin.

“According to our estimates, for the current situation, the exchange rate of 77-81 rubles per euro could be considered conditionally fair,” Bakhtin said.

He clarified that the fair exchange rate of the euro and the dollar is considered differently. The fair exchange rate of the dollar is cleared of geopolitical influence and takes into account current oil prices. In the case of the euro against the ruble, it is also necessary to take into account the relationship in the euro-dollar currency pair. At some moments, the euro can show strength in the world currency market, in such situations one can sometimes observe how the Russian currency strengthens against the American one and at the same time weakens against the euro and vice versa.

“Therefore, the value of the hypothetical fair exchange rate of the euro against the ruble is an even more approximate and conditional value. The euro exchange rate was close to fair in October 2021, when from a foreign policy point of view, everything was quite calm, and raw material prices were growing, ”Bakhtin explained.

According to him, in order to return to such a value of the euro in rubles, a reliable "thaw" in relations with the West and the preservation of a comfortable price environment in commodities, especially in oil, are needed.

“Currency rates are very sensitive to signals from central banks. The increase in rates translates into strengthening the national currency. Recently, both the ECB and the Fed, against the backdrop of raging inflation, have been sending signals about a possible more decisive tightening of their monetary policy. At the same time, the European regulator is clearly less harsh in assessing its immediate actions, which means that the dollar in the foreseeable future may look preferable to the euro. And including from the point of view of savings, ”Bakhtin believes.

At 13.30 Moscow time on February 10, the euro exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 85.5 rubles.

bbabo.Net