Russia (bbabo.net), - In the first month of 2022, the Russian currency showed its worst performance since 2015, falling to almost 80 rubles per dollar. But in the last days of the month, the exchange rate stabilized in the range of 77-78 rubles per "American".

What awaits the ruble in February and what factors will determine its rate, Valery Korneichuk, an associate professor and teacher at the Department of Financial Disciplines at the Higher School of Financial Management, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta:

- The geopolitical environment will remain ambiguous and subject to high volatility. However, sanctions rhetoric against Russia has long ceased to be news. The US State Department intends henceforth not to disclose the content of the imposed sanctions in advance, so that Russia would not be able to prepare for them. The market reaction to this is quite calm.

The behavior of the Russian currency in February will be determined by two groups of factors.

The first group that has a positive impact:

- Significant gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia amounting to 639.6 billion dollars.

- Positive foreign trade balance, high world prices for metals, fertilizers, grain.

- Oil prices at $89 per barrel. And, most likely, at the next meeting, OPEC + will maintain the volume of daily oil production;

- The Bank of Russia's planned increase in the key rate to 9% at the February meeting;

- The period of payment of tax payments for VAT, income tax, mineral extraction tax and excises for January of this year.

The second group that has a negative impact:

- The ongoing difficult epidemic situation caused by the spread of a new strain of coronavirussia, Europe and the USA;

- The intentions announced by the Fed to reduce the volume of repurchased assets and raise the key rate from March this year;

- Falling share of foreign investors in OFZ. By January 28, it had dropped to 18.8%;

- News "shocks" from the emergence of new US and European sanctions. Russia may retaliate against British businesses if Britain imposes new sanctions.

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What will the ruble exchange rate be like in February?

Taking into account the analysis carried out, we can expect that in the event of a decrease in geopolitical risks, the dollar exchange rate in February will fluctuate in the range of 75-77 rubles. The euro exchange rate will be in the range of 85-87 rubles.

In the event of the introduction of tough sanctions, the dollar exchange rate may rise to 90 rubles per dollar and higher (the maximum dollar grew in 2016 to 86 rubles), and the euro exchange rate - up to 100 rubles (a repetition of the indicator of 2014). However, we consider this scenario unlikely.

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