The Turkish lira will continue to fall against the euro and the ruble, Fitch predicts. But the Russians will not be able to significantly save on holidays in Turkey - the cost of tour packages is pegged to the euro. However, shopping will be profitable if you pay with lira. The international rating agency Fitch has downgraded Turkey's long-term foreign currency rating from BB- to B+. The outlook for the country remains negative. “Turkey's expansionary policy (including extremely negative real rates) could keep inflation high, increase public finances' exposure to impairment risk,” the agency said in a report.

By the end of the year, inflation in Turkey could rise to a record 41%. Next year - up to 28%.

The stable rating and outlook for Turkey were exactly two years ago. In February 2020, Fitch Ratings noted a recovery in the country's economic growth from 3.1% to 3.9%. And the inflation rate, as predicted, will decrease from 20% to 10.5%.

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The sooner you buy, the cheaper it will be

The exchange rate of the Turkish national currency has not only been declining lately, it is collapsing. And not only to hard currencies, but also to the ruble. A year ago, the Turkish lira was worth more than 10 rubles, now it is 5.6 rubles.

One of the main reasons for the record depreciation of the lira is the strange financial policy of President Erdogan, says Aleksey Krichevsky, an expert at the Academy of Financial and Investment Management. “Erdogan decided that contrary to all the laws of the economy, in order to reduce inflation, it is necessary to lower the Central Bank rate, although this does not work in any country in the world,” Krichevsky notes.

asked experts and participants in the tourism market whether Russians can save money on a holiday trip to Turkey, taking advantage of the depreciation of the lira.

The executive director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR) Maya Lomidze advises to focus not so much on the exchange rate of the lira against the ruble or euro, but on early booking. “The promotion for early booking of tours is valid until March 31 and applies to trips for the entire beach season,” says Lomidze.

Now you will need to pay from 10% to 30% of the fixed cost of the tour, and the rest - in the spring or summer, for example, two weeks before departure, says Lomidze.

"In normal times" the action of early booking meant that the tourist pays for the package at once, in full. And for this he receives a significant discount. “Now they offer both a discount and actually an installment plan. But far from all operators and travel agents have such a scheme, ”warns Lomidze.

After March 31, travel prices, as they say, will be “released”. Now, for example, a three-star hotel with a flight for a week with all inclusive on the Anatolian coast of Turkey will cost 45-50 thousand rubles. In April, the same tour will cost from 60 thousand rubles.

Five Stars for a week in June is now estimated at 145,000 rubles. If you buy such a tour in April, then it will rise in price to 170 thousand rubles. On the coast of the Aegean Sea, about the same “five” all inclusive will cost about 200 thousand rubles,” says Lomidze.

The cost of tours this season is fueled by the rejection of lockdowns in Turkey and the increased interest of Europeans in this country. According to Lomidze, great lovers of Turkish hospitality - the Germans and the British - are already actively booking vacations in Istanbul, Antalya, as well as on the Aegean coast.

On average, due to early booking, Russians can save up to 25% on buying a tour package, according to ATOR.

The other side of hospitality

Professor of the Russian State University of Tourism and Service, State Duma deputy Nikolai Novichkov is nevertheless convinced that Turkish business will not be able to raise the price tag this season.

“There will be competition from Egypt, where the price tag is definitely lower, and there are also competitive offers from Tunisia, Cyprus, Greece. And the Turks will still have to fight for the Russian tourist,” explains Novichkov.

In addition, he is sure that both Russian and European tourists have tasted domestic resorts, where holidays are both cheaper and safer. “So it will not be so easy to lure a tourist to the Turkish coast,” Novichkov notes.

Vice-President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry Dmitry Gorin clarifies that over the past year, domestic tourism has recovered by almost 90% by 2019, the pre-pandemic year, while outbound tourism is still lagging behind. In 2020, about 2 million Russians rested in Turkey, in 2021 - 4.7 million. And about 1.5 million more Russians would have rested in Turkey if it had not repeated the lockdown.

The peak of arrivals was in 2019, when 6.9 million Russians spent their holidays in Turkey, continues Gorin. He recalls that Turkey's share usually reaches 50-60% of all outbound tourism.“Turkey is distinguished by a variety of prices, excellent service, these are its competitive advantages. It is no coincidence that Turkish holidays are characterized by strong return demand (when tourists return to the country several times). That is, Turkey's potential is huge. Turkey this year may be able to restore the previous tourist flow from Russia,” says Gorin.

The flip side of this Turkish shore advantage is dynamic pricing. If demand starts to grow, then prices for Turkish resorts in the high season may rise unpredictably, experts are unanimous.

Turkish media are now writing about the rise in food prices in the country. But Turkish hoteliers do not intend to refuse all inclusive guests, Dimitris Haritidis, Managing Director of TEZ TOUR, assures. “Inflation in Turkey, of course, is growing. But the main risk is geopolitical tensions, not food and electricity prices,” explains Haritidis.

“We should not forget that Turkey remains an attractive country for shopping for Russians. There are no classic shopping tours for clothes in Turkey now. But if you sit for a bit near the reception in any Turkish hotel, you can easily see with what bulky bags Russians return from shopping centers. And there are not only souvenirs and Turkish delight,” notes Gorin from the PCT.

The Tui travel company clarified that only those tourists who pay for goods and services in cafes and restaurants in Turkey, go shopping centers, exchanging euros and dollars for local currency will benefit from the weakening of the Turkish lira.

At the same time, contracts with Turkish hoteliers have already been signed for almost the entire summer season, market participants note. “Contracting for this summer has already been completed, prices are fixed. Usually in euros. So fluctuations in the exchange rate of the lira against the euro (or the dollar) do not particularly affect the cost of tours, ”says Lomidze from ATOR.

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