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Russia - Ostapkovich: Artificial Intelligence Will Easily Replace Routine Specialties

Russia (bbabo.net), - The Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation proposed to stop admission to colleges and technical schools for 43 professions. The goal is to bring the training of personnel in line with the current requirements of the labor market. Well, the world continues to change, and the labor market is sensitive to these changes. What professions are surviving and what professions should be learned today in order to earn good money in the future? Let's discuss the topic with Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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If professions are removed from training, this does not mean that they are not needed

Among the 43 professions for which training is discontinued is a nursing assistant. Should it be understood that the junior nurse will soon cease to be in demand?

Georgy Ostapkovich: There is no need to draw such fundamental conclusions about the fact that the Ministry of Education removes a number of professions from education. Yes, these professions are removed from training, but this does not mean that they disappear. They are just low-tech, they do not require comprehensive training. These are fast learning professions. You can learn to become a nurse assistant within the hospital itself. And such professions are removed from training. But they do not disappear from practice. Moreover, they may become even more common. Because our population is aging. And that's okay. This means that life expectancy increases. But, unfortunately, the stratum of the most productive, most innovative people aged 25-42 is shrinking. It is these people who actively participate in the creation of the gross domestic product.

Each country has a classifier of professions. What is the Russian classifier and how does it compare, for example, with the American one?

Georgy Ostapkovich: All classifiers in any kind of activity are, in principle, standardized. There are only minimal differences. For example, our classifier is almost the same as the American classifier. This is approximately 7-8 thousand professions in our classifier and about 10 thousand in the American one. They are listed alphabetically. But there are activities practiced only in Russia. For example, the profession, which in our classifier is the first in the alphabet, is called an air band worker. This is a rather specific and rare profession. Averbander is a person who paints folk patterns on silk. There is no such profession in America. For some reason they don't make national paintings on silk.

And if we compare the Russian and American classifiers in terms of disappearing professions?

Georgy Ostapkovich: America is technologically ahead of us by about twenty years, except for astronautics and defense technologies. Therefore, in the near future we will have the same processes that have been going on in America for the past twenty years. There, only one profession has disappeared from this classifier over the past 30 years - an elevator operator. The professions obtained as a result of training and the professions required by the employer do not really match the classifier. Our classifier, in principle, correlates with the American one, and even more so with the European one. Although we have a developed mining industry: oil, gas, coal. In Europe, there are very few people involved in this type of economic activity. And therefore the profession of an oil driller is practically not relevant, and it is quite common in our country. But in general, we are in the global trend in the name of professions.

There are professions that do not need to be taught in college

If training in some professions stops, and the professions themselves are still in demand, then how should the employer behave? When interviewing a potential employee, he may ask: where did you acquire your specialty?

Georgy Ostapkovich: High-tech, medium-tech and even low-tech professions will continue to be taught. But there are professions that do not need to be taught in a college or technical school. The employer asks not where you studied, but what experience you have in this specialty. And if a person says: “I worked as a loader for fifteen years at such enterprises,” then it’s no longer worth asking where you studied as a loader. Because learning to be a loader is not so necessary. It is only desirable to submit written characteristics, recommendation papers, as is customary in the Western world. Most people are hired based on experience. Suppose you have two contenders in front of you. One graduated from the university, the other - a vocational school. And I do not rule out that a worker who graduated from a vocational school will be more competent in some craft than a university graduate. I mean now low-tech professions. In high-tech and medium-tech professions, the level of knowledge should, of course, be higher than that of people who graduated from a technical school.People are hired based on work experience. And I do not rule out that a college graduate is more competent in some craft than a university graduate

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We have low population mobility

How does the structure of unemployment look like now? Are any of these 43 professions that are proposed to be discontinued included?

Georgy Ostapkovich: Now the structure of unemployment is stationary. It all depends on the demand for goods and services. If demand rises, then, naturally, some specific workers are required. We have three professions on the labor market where entry is free. First: trade workers. They occupy 7 percent of total employment. Second: car drivers. Also about 7 percent. And third: the guards. They also have free entry. You may not get a job as a security guard at Gazprom or Rosneft, but they will always take you to the hairdresser to guard scissors and hair dryers. In other professions, there is usually some kind of competition.

In some European country, in order to find a job, you can go to another region where specialists of your profile are required. The Russians continue to live according to the proverb: where you were born, you came in handy there. Low mobility of the population - does it also affect the unemployment rate?

Georgy Ostapkovich: Of course. For example, in Germany, some engineer works on water management mechanisms. He sits in Munich, but sees that in Hamburg they pay two or three times more for this profession. He immediately leaves the place, rents out his premises and goes to Hamburg. And we are looking for a profession within a radius of a maximum of one hundred kilometers. For example, in Saratov, a hairdresser was laid off. And at the labor exchange he is offered to become a metallurgist. Or an engineer for calculating the trajectories of missiles in a vacuum. Or some other profession that has nothing to do with hairdressing. And literally after three hundred kilometers in another city, on the contrary, they fired the metallurgist for reduction. But it needs a hairdresser. This poor metallurgist cannot get a job as a hairdresser, because he has a different profession. We don't have an unemployment problem. We have an unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. This is the minimum level for the entire time of observations in the new Russia. This level of unemployment has never been. True, there is one "but". In those countries where the payment of unemployment benefits is low, the unemployment rate is always low. If our allowance was, for example, in Greece, which is not the most secure in terms of this indicator - 300-400 euros, then unemployment would not be 4.3 percent, but much higher. Why go to work with such benefits?

Low mobility is probably part of the lifestyle of a Russian. But there is also an economic explanation for this. Moving to another region for the sake of work is associated with the need to rent housing there. With our income level, this means that almost all earnings will go to renting an apartment.

Georgy Ostapkovich: I absolutely agree with you. Of course, Russians are very family people. Leaving even grandparents is extremely difficult. And Europeans are mobile. They don't have that distance. Now we are given all sorts of bonuses in the Far East and the Arctic. But what is it like to leave Tverskaya for the Far East, even if they give you two or three times more salary there? Hardly anyone will go. Only perhaps people who earn very little and who are not burdened by families. In addition, there is a positive effect that we had in the 90s. Russia ranks first in the world in the privatization of apartments. We have 75 or even 80 percent of people own property. There is no such thing anywhere in the world. The same Germans live in rented apartment buildings or in a long mortgage for 20-30 years. It is easier for them to leave one place, move to another and rent out their housing to someone for a while. There are less distances and better infrastructure. There you can get from one point of the country to another in 8-10 hours. And if I'm going from Moscow to the Far East ... you yourself understand what it is. There are other factors that make our mobility quite low. The president and the government are now saying that it is necessary to develop infrastructure projects. Infrastructure is being developed not only to create roads, bridges, airports, but also to increase the mobility of people and the movement of goods.

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Investments in human capital are needed

Let's suppose that a junior nurse will always be needed and you can learn this profession within the hospital. But there are dying professions. And what about people who know only these professions?Georgy Ostapkovich: Professions as such will not die out. "Cleaning manager" (cleaning lady), he was, and will remain. "Expert in the movement of goods" (loader), he was, and will remain. The functionality will change. New technologies will arise in the same cleaning of premises or in the same movement of goods. But people will still remain. Yes, there will be fewer. Yes, some of them will have to retrain in other, but low-tech professions. However, these professions will not disappear completely, as we have disappeared before, for example, the "driver of the mare" - the driver. The blacksmiths have disappeared. The telegraphers have disappeared. The chimney sweeps are gone. There was even a profession - a rat-catcher. She, too, is no more. Perhaps soon the lifter will disappear as a profession. But all this does not mean at all that there will be many unemployed. During the first industrial revolution, a huge mass of people were released, and unemployment remained practically at the same level. Because after about six months these people moved to other professions. New technologies have brought a dramatic increase in labor productivity. People began to earn more. If a person earns more, he spends more, he needs new services. People are moving into other professions. Then they enter the foreign market, because they produce more goods and services. People go into new professions to create these new products. Therefore, I do not expect a sharp technological unemployment. People will find a replacement for disappearing professions, move to other professions. The main thing here is education. And the role of the state, its investments in human capital is very high. First of all, in education, healthcare, science. Because the transformations that will take place in the fourth industrial revolution will be fundamental. But they also carry a lot of dangers for society. The main danger is related to the level of knowledge. People with a high level of knowledge will be in demand to create and apply all these technologies. At the same time, there will be people who, due to their lack of competence, will not be able to do this. This means that there will be a sharp polarization in terms of income.

You won't cut surgeons. And some important but routine specialty, for example, an insurer, can be easily replaced by artificial intelligence

People entering the digital age with the old baggage of knowledge are doomed to forever be in the category of low-paid or can they be retrained?

Georgy Ostapkovich: If you change profession, then retraining is very costly. You can't retrain a teacher to be a cardiologist. You can help him improve his skills. This is a completely different direction, but also high-cost. Of course, people of pre-retirement age will find themselves in a rather difficult situation. And here the role of the state is very important. We still constitutionally position ourselves as a socially oriented state. Therefore, the state, at least at the first stage, during the transitional period, when a noticeable change of professions will begin, must somehow help people of pre-retirement age. And direct bonuses, and through advanced training. Although it is possible to retrain professions up to 30-35 years. At this age, you can still change your profession, if it belongs to at least medium-tech. You can still change if these are related professions. You were a drilling engineer, and you became an electronics engineer. Again, everything will depend on demand, on what kind of economy we will have. Even in today's technology, pre-retirees, if laid off, have a hard time finding jobs. As various studies show, the growth of competence and the growth of salaries in our country goes up to about 42-43 years. Then, somewhere from 43-45 to 52 years old, the salary falls on a plateau and does not increase further. And somewhere from the age of 52-53, it begins to fall. The demand for you is already limited, unless, of course, you are a unique specialist. I am talking now about the real sector (industry, construction, agriculture). And in education, science, culture, people at the age of 60, and at 65, and older, not only can bring, but also bring benefits.

What specialties do you need to study today in order to provide yourself with a job and a good salary in the future?Georgy Ostapkovich: We are now in clear favor with IT specialists and all types of activities related to information technology and big data. Creative people will also be in demand. And people aimed at social, communicative actions "eye". And people who work in conditions of heightened uncertainty. For example, you will not cut a psychiatrist, you will not cut people involved in social activities with other people. You will not cut archaeologists, surgeons. And some important, but routine specialty, for example, an insurer or a tax inspector, will be quietly replaced by artificial intelligence. In general, one should not be afraid of technological transformations. Because all three industrial revolutions that took place before that brought income not only to the economies of certain countries, but also to people. The main thing for people during major technological changes is to gain additional knowledge and competencies. And here the role of the state is great in providing them with these public services by increasing budget expenditures in this direction.

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Georgy Ostapkovich - Director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics. Born in Moscow. Graduated from the Moscow Institute of Economics and Statistics. From 1972 to 1992 he worked in the central office of the USSR State Committee on Statistics. From 1992 to 2007 - at the Center for Economic Conjuncture under the Government of the Russian Federation. Since 2008 - Deputy Head of the Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation. He led the development of short-term economic indicators within the framework of organizing a national system for collecting data on trends and economic activities of enterprises in Russia, and was involved in the implementation of this system in economic practice. Collaborated with ministries and departments of the Russian Federation and a number of foreign organizations. Author of more than 50 publications on economic topics.

Russia - Ostapkovich: Artificial Intelligence Will Easily Replace Routine Specialties