Russia (bbabo.net), - In five years, the cost of Russian oil production has doubled. These are the data of Rosstat. And this is without taking into account taxes, which also increased. Today's record high since 2014, barrel quotes allow mining companies not to pay much attention to this. But if oil prices return to an average of $50-60 per barrel, the problems of Russian oil production will immediately come to the fore, hitting the most vulnerable spot in the Russian economy - the country's budget.

Oil is the main source of revenue for the treasury. It is possible to discuss the problems of Nord Stream 2 and gas price records on European sites for a whole year, but oil brings at least 2.5 times more to the budget (depending on world conditions). And this is not counting oil products - different types of motor fuel from aviation kerosene to fuel oil. In 2021, according to preliminary estimates, gas exports brought about $16 billion to the budget, and crude oil more than $50 billion.

In recent years, gas has been increasing its share in the revenues of the treasury, but this process is not an avalanche, and so far it is still a long way to move oil from the pedestal of the main breadwinner of the budget.

There is an opinion that the oil dependence of the economy is an atavism, a relic of the Soviet period. You can't even argue with this. Just for the development of advanced technologies and new sectors of the economy - hydrogen and renewable energy, the production of batteries, solar panels and other things, investments are needed - funds. The oil industry can give them to us, filling the treasury. Therefore, as long as there is demand for oil, we need to use the fact that we have it, unlike, for example, most European countries. And the more we get it, the better.

According to Rosstat, in the third quarter of 2021, the average cost of producing one barrel of Russian oil without taxes was approximately $40. With taxes - above 65 dollars. With world quotes above $85, this is not the worst result, but if the price starts to fall, then even despite the correction of production costs, some subsoil areas will go beyond the profitability of their development.

The main reason is the general deterioration in the structure of oil reserves and the growth in the share of hard-to-recover reserves (TRIZ), said Valery Andrianov, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. In the all-Russian production, the share of TRIZ is still relatively small - 7.2%, but it is constantly growing. And the potential volume reaches 200 billion tons of oil. The extraction of TRIZ requires new technologies and equipment, which is also reflected in operating costs, the expert notes.

However, this is not the only factor. The main reason for the growth of the ruble cost of oil production in Russia remains the devaluation of the Russian currency, Oksana Lukicheva, an analyst for commodity markets at Otkritie Investments, believes. In her opinion, despite the growth in production costs and the increase in the tax burden, the rate of depreciation of the exchange rate allows to cover these costs and maintain high profits.

Indeed, in dollars, the cost of production increased by only 30%, which corresponds to the accumulated inflation over five years. As Andrianov noted, the average cost is like the average temperature in a hospital. There are companies that are quite healthy and successfully resist this process. For example, the largest oil producing company in the country, Rosneft, reduced operating costs by 3.5% in 2021 compared to 2020. In his opinion, the growth in the cost of oil production accelerates inflation. But the negative impact of this can be avoided through the actions of the regulator.

Here, however, questions arise about the degree of effectiveness of these measures. How many people in our country have increased their income by 30% over the past five years? Can an increase in the cost of raw materials for the production of automotive fuel not affect the cost of gasoline and diesel at gas stations, even taking into account the strict control of retail prices by the state? And can an increase in the cost of production of a product, which is the main source of budget revenues, not accelerate inflation? And most importantly, will the oil industry be strong enough in such conditions to remain donor to the country's economy?

In the long term, companies' own measures to reduce the cost of oil production may not be enough, which may lead to a decrease in the investment attractiveness of mining projects in the Russian Federation, Andrianov believes. To prevent this from happening, it is necessary to create investment incentives for the development of new oil and gas provinces and TRIZ, the expert is sure.

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