Russia (bbabo.net), - Serious sanctions against Russian oil and gas exports by Europe and the United States are hardly possible for a simple reason - their effect on the economies of the initiating countries will be more painful than on the economy of our country. Financial sanctions may be more painful, but there is no talk of major restrictions here either.

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Oil

Russia's share in the world oil and gas market is over 10 percent, which in itself is already a lot. But the most important thing is that Russian oil, oil products and gas occupy from 20 to 40 percent of the European market. By banning the export of Russian oil products, Europe will face a serious shortage of them (about 5 million barrels per day in total), which will have nothing to cover. Now the world is already facing a shortage of oil, and the OPEC + countries do not have time to increase production even in accordance with their plans. Therefore, it makes no sense to talk about an unplanned increase in production. There is no need to wait for help from the USA. Despite the world's first place in production, America exports no more than 3.5 million barrels of oil per day (part of the export is already going to Europe), and imports more than 5 million barrels of oil products per day, including from Russia (up to 10 percent of all imports).

Only Saudi Arabia can compensate for such volumes falling from the market, but this is a matter of several years. In addition, expensive oil is more profitable for the kingdom's budget, and the Saudis will wait with great pleasure until the price per barrel rises to $120-150.

Gas

The situation with gas for Europe and the USA is even worse. Not a single exporting country will be able to replace Russian gas on the European market; its shortage will have to be compensated by supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil and coal. The redirection of supplies of these resources from Asia and Latin America to Europe will lead to an avalanche-like increase in prices for energy raw materials, fuel and electricity throughout the world.

Initially, a local shortage of resources in Asia will cause a rise in prices here and increase the attractiveness of this market, causing a reverse outflow of supplies from Europe, which, in turn, will provoke a rise in prices in the countries of the Old World. And so on, like a swing. Prices will only rise, not decrease, but only stabilize for some time during the period of growth in supply in any part of the world. As a result, meet a new global economic crisis.

No exporting country can replace Russian gas on the European market

The United States will not stand aside, the subsequent collapse in world energy prices will quickly make the extraction of shale oil and gas unprofitable, and there will be nowhere to take their additional volumes. Russia, of course, will also suffer, we do not live on a cloud, we, like the whole world, will be guaranteed an economic downturn, a budget deficit and a decline in living standards. But, fortunately, this is almost a fantastic option.

Therefore, the only sanctions that the West can use against Russian oil and gas are restrictions on the export of technologies, a ban on cooperation (including lending and investment), as well as freezing projects involving Russian companies abroad and their assets abroad. The first two options have already been used by the US and Europe, and their impact on the Russian oil and gas industry is declining over time. The last option is possible. For example, the freezing of the never launched Nord Stream 2. This measure will not have any economic impact on Russia, but it will create a loud news background. And then the gas pipeline will still be launched after the first failure of the worn-out gas transportation system of Ukraine, which will leave Europe without heat and electricity.

Finance

Disconnection of Russia from the international interbank system SWIFT, as has been emphasized more than once, is not considered.

A ban on settlements in US dollars for Russian banks is more possible. It will be possible to get around this measure only with a selective introduction of a ban: the relevant banks will simply stop conducting transactions in US dollars, closing their accounts in them, and will make payments in other currencies (rubles, euros, and so on). The ban on all Russian banks to pay in dollars will lead to losses for US banks, as their operations will be reduced, although these losses will be small, says Anton Prokudin, chief macroeconomist at Ingosstrakh Investments.

Strengthening sanctions on Russian government debt - a ban on transactions with old issues of Russian government bonds - will only lead to losses for Western investors, who will be forced to sell all these bonds at any price, adds Prokudin. Now about 20 percent of government bonds are owned by non-residents, in OFZ, according to him, this amount is about $43 billion.

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