Russia (bbabo.net), - The turn to the East, the development of import substitution and the support of our own economy will help to withstand possible sanctions without significant losses. The interviewed experts spoke about this.
Three types of sanctions could now threaten Russia, warns Dmitry Zhuravlev, scientific director of the Institute of Regional Problems. They can be directed to finance. For example, Russia could theoretically be banned from making payments in foreign currency, primarily in dollars, admits Lazar Badalov, Associate Professor of the Department of World Finance at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. The second type is a ban on the supply of IT components. The third is sanctions on oil and gas exports.
"Sanctions can be introduced in several rounds," says Marcel Salikhov, director of the Center for Economic Expertise at the State Medical University Higher School of Economics. "First, soft restrictions on specific people. Then, after all approvals are passed, against sectors of the economy." Banks may be the first to suffer, Salikhov believes. They will be sanctioned one.
“The oil sector is unlikely to face restrictions, unless they strengthen the bans on financing the industry, the participation of foreigners in our companies,” continues Salikhov. the project may remain on hold until the contradictions are resolved."
The long-term negative consequences for economic growth from threatening sanctions can hardly be countered, Salikhov adds. But the country can be helped by operational decisions: the use of state support measures, the easing of the fiscal rule, so that it becomes possible to pursue a policy of active budgetary stimulation.
To minimize the consequences of the imposition of sanctions, Zhuravlev suggests looking to the East. China and Japan have both free money and the technologies we need, they are ready to buy hydrocarbons.
So far, technological sanctions may be the most sensitive. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko proposed to ensure Russia's complete independence from foreign products by 2030. But so far, full import substitution looks elusive. “Import substitution means not only access to technologies, but also a long time,” says Arseniy Brykin, director of the Basis Consortium association. According to him, Russian microelectronics is very dependent on imports, even the production of components in the country is 95% based on foreign materials.
"There is a dependence, but it is not absolute," the ministry explained. According to the department, in a number of segments it is already possible to abandon foreign equipment, primarily DWDM and some routers.
"Now everything will depend on decisions that are not made in Russia and that we have no way to influence. However, we believe that one way or another, Russian business will continue to have access to modern equipment and components. Practice shows that technological development is possible even under sanctions pressure and the creation of modern products, for example, by reusing the technologies of those countries that do not support sanctions," the ministry said.
In order to minimize the consequences of possible sanctions, experts suggest paying attention to the investment and trade opportunities of Asian countries
As a result, Russian manufacturers are placing the production of components at facilities in Asia. According to a Baikal Electronics representative, TSMC now has 150,000 Baikal processor chips ready and another 50,000 are in production. And the company is constantly ordering new batches. There are no alternatives to this approach on the Russian market.
"The electronics industry of no country develops in a vacuum, and the role of international cooperation in the industry is difficult to overestimate," says Vera Smirnova, Executive Director of the AKRP-Consortium of Design Centers. According to her, for several years the industry in Russia has been developing taking into account the possibility of new sanctions.
"First of all, new measures are being implemented and developed to finance the development of an electronic component base, modules, equipment, special technological equipment. This allows, based on existing backlogs, to quickly reduce dependence on imports, both for the electronic industry itself and for the areas of application of its civilian products," Smirnova said.
It looks like the processes taking place in the software market, but here the situation is better. The implementation of the state policy to ensure digital sovereignty was the right strategic decision, says Renat Lashin, executive director of ARPP "Domestic Soft".
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