Russia (bbabo.net), - US sanctions against Nord Stream 2 and the suspension of the gas pipeline certification by the German government will lead to a series of lengthy litigations and at the same time does not mean the final abandonment of the project. About 10 billion euros were invested in the project, with half of the investments made by European companies.
Moreover, ground infrastructure was created by Gazprom's partners for Nord Stream 2. For example, the EUGAL gas pipeline - a continuation of Nord Stream 2 through Germany - worth 3 billion euros was fully financed by German companies. Record gas prices in Europe allowed Gazprom to recoup its investments in the construction of Nord Stream 2 (about 5 billion euros, the exact amount was not disclosed), which was announced last year, but to say this about the European participants in the project (Wintershall Dea, Engie, OMV, Shell and Uniper) is not possible at all.
As Wintershall Dea noted, if the policy prevents the launch of Nord Stream 2, the operating company (Nord Stream 2 AG), in which the Europeans have invested, may demand compensation. Wintershall Dea sees no other reasonable solution in case the project is stopped for political reasons.
There is one more nuance here connected with Germany - the economic leader of the European Union. If the country continues the policy of decommissioning nuclear power plants and abandoning coal-fired generation, then the demand for gas here will only grow. The safest and most cost-effective way to get it to Germany is via the Baltic Sea. Nord Stream 2 was built for this increase in demand. With this gas pipeline, Germany gained energy independence by importing gas directly from Russia and benefiting from gas transit to other countries - the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Poland. Without Nord Stream 2, Germany is forced to buy part of the gas at exchange prices, which, for example, is now extremely expensive. And given the expected increase in gas consumption in F without Nord Stream 2, the share of such supplies will grow. Therefore, putting aside political rhetoric, freezing Nord Stream 2 is not at all in the interests of Berlin.
However, now in the frenzy of sanctions, Europe can go further. Following the frozen Nord Stream 2 project, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki proposed to stop the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Despite the absurdity of such a statement, this idea can find many supporters. These are the United States, as well as some European countries, in which such a scenario may arouse economic interest.
The capacity of the gas transmission system (GTS) of Ukraine (more than 130 billion cubic meters per year) exceeds the combined capacity of the two Nord Streams (55 and 55 billion cubic meters). The Ukrainian GTS is worn out, has not been repaired for a long time, and in recent years it has been used by about a third. But the very possibility of forcing Russia to pay for gas transit to a country in conflict with it may also seem attractive to many Western politicians.
Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, it can be economically beneficial. Poland will receive a long-awaited increase in transit through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. The Czech Republic and Hungary will increase transit through their territory, since part of the gas supplies to Germany will go through them. But this is what lies on the surface. Countries with liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving points and its exporters will be able to receive significant benefits. Russia's ability to increase exports will be limited. It will be possible to increase supplies only at the expense of Qatari and American LNG, and given the shortage, prices for it will be very high, which will give impetus to their growth around the world. And the most affected country in Europe will be Germany, which will receive all gas through transit countries and, moreover, does not have its own regasification points for receiving LNG.
There is no talk of a complete renunciation of Russian gas in Europe, since there is no replacement for it
Stopping Nord Stream will cause an emergency situation in Germany's gas supply and undermine not only its economic development, but also the EU as a whole, said Aleksey Grivach, deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund. It is significant that there is no talk of a complete renunciation of Russian gas, only declarative statements by some European politicians. The reason is simple, everyone understands that there is no replacement for him in Europe.
Pipeline supplies from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan, even at the maximum possible capacity, will cover no more than 10% of gas supplies from Russia. Global LNG production is limited and, despite growth in 2021, is still able to meet the needs of only one of the markets - either the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (bbabo.netR), or Europe.So far, Western countries are not in a position to limit gas exports from Russia - and without this, world markets will have too high prices and too low reserves, Finam analyst Sergei Kaufman said. In his opinion, theoretically, the Ukrainian GTS is able to withstand all the gas that is now flowing through the first Nord Stream, but practically no one, except the GTS operator, knows how worn out the gas pipelines are.
Ukrainian transit is not the most reliable option now, Grivach believes. Here, not only technical risks may arise due to the deterioration of pipes. Earlier, Russia has repeatedly convicted Ukraine of unauthorized gas extraction.
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