Russia (bbabo.net), - The sanctions of the West have so far hardly affected the energy sector of the Russian economy. It's hard to deal with something you depend on a lot. But the development vector is marked - Europe will try to minimize the growth of oil, gas and coal exports from our country. That is to look for other suppliers. Robert Habek, head of the German Ministry of Economy - our main partner in the European Union, announced the decision to abandon gas and coal from Russia.

Do not see here only political reasons. Europe depends on energy exporting countries and has long wanted to get rid of this dependence. But for now, the Old World can only change the sources of energy supplies, and even then, only within the framework of the capabilities of the infrastructure and production capacities of exporters.

Oil at $100 per barrel and more, 1,000 cubic meters of gas at a price of 20 grams of gold (more than $1,000) is a new reality that not a single most daring expert could have predicted just a year ago. For comparison: earlier the cost of this volume of "blue fuel" was equal to two, and in better times - five grams of gold.

The global economy has been shaking since the turn of the century, but the real test only began in 2020. The monolith cracked - first the coronavirus, then the energy crisis and the shortage of traditional fuels, and now Ukraine.

In fact, now we are talking about another redistribution of the market for the sake of the economic interests of political forces that are now popular in Europe. The preferences of the electorate, of course, may change in five years, but so far the scenario is being played out. Why do the Europeans, who are now on the political Olympus, need this?

First of all, these are the countries of the Middle East and the United States, despite all statements of commitment to the "green" agenda, increasing the production of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), says the head of the National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov. A new cycle of investments in LNG projects in the US should now begin, and they will need a guaranteed market and good profitability. Australia and Qatar are going to increase LNG production. New projects need high energy prices. Strategically, this is a threat to the future of hydrocarbon raw materials, but at the moment it is beneficial for launching new projects. And Europe will do everything to replace energy supplies from Russia with exports from other countries, the expert notes.

Oil is not left out. The production of "black gold" in America is growing. In 2023, the country plans to reach a record average annual oil production of 12.6 million barrels per day. And since the main part of production is shale oil, high quotations per barrel are needed for production, judging by the statistics, at least $70 per barrel.

Against the background of the conflict with the West, cooperation between Russia and China in the energy sector will be strengthened

According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the contradictions in the energy sector between Europe and Russia also play into the hands of China. Against the background of the conflict between Russia and the West, energy cooperation with China will further strengthen, which will allow the Celestial Empire to have a reliable source of additional supplies of hydrocarbon raw materials and continue to avoid energy crises similar to the one that was observed last year, the expert believes.

The rise in prices for energy raw materials due to the conflict between Russia and the West is not beneficial for China in the short term due to high prices, Simonov believes. But strategically, the current situation will allow Beijing to guarantee an increase in supplies of oil, gas and coal from Russia at the lowest possible prices, since our country will have to completely reorient energy exports to the east, where China will be their main consumer, the expert explains.

Another party interested in maintaining high oil and gas prices is the European "greens". It is very beneficial for them to shift the focus from the problems of the failure of "green" energy in 2021 to the resulting increase in the cost of traditional energy resources. The Greens have become a serious force in Europe, but being in power has forced them to take economic issues seriously, and not just from slogans and declarations.

As Andrianov noted, the termination of Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe would demonstrate the failure of alternative energy in its current form and the inability to replace hydrocarbons even in the most advanced markets in terms of "environmental policy".

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