Russia (bbabo.net), - The rise in the cost of housing in the near future should not be as rapid as in the last year and a half. Experts predicted prices on the real estate market in 2022.

In 2021, housing has risen in price by 15-30% in different regions, says Lyudmila Anisimova, real estate expert at the Higher School of Financial Management. Housing affordability has dropped significantly for the first time in 12 years since the 2008 crisis. The debt burden now on average already amounts to 35% of the total income of a Russian family, which is 8% higher than in 2020, while the income of citizens continues to decline so far.

There were many reasons for such a sharp jump in cost: the rush demand for new buildings from the second half of 2020 after the appearance of preferential mortgages at 6.5%, the rise in prices for building materials and equipment, the reduction of cheap labor from foreign workers, and growing inflation in the country.

Due to the increase in the key rate, mortgage rates are projected to rise to 10-10.2% or more, Anisimova notes. Those who managed to get approval from the bank at the previous rates will have to manage to purchase housing within three months. Therefore, some activity will spread to the beginning of 2022. "In general, we enter 2022 with higher mortgage rates, prevailing high house prices, declining consumer demand and growing inflation," the expert says.

There will be no such significant growth in housing prices, but the general rise in prices will not lead to a drop in housing prices. Therefore, a small stable growth is likely, proportional to the rise in inflation, Anisimova said.

The development of mortgage programs aimed at individual housing construction may reorient some buyers from apartments to country houses, and prices in this sector may continue to rise. However, the development and implementation of programs for standardization and typification of individual houses by developers can bring relatively inexpensive options to the market.

Housing in Moscow, the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region will remain a reliable investment, despite the highest prices in the country. The cost per square meter in these regions is likely to continue to grow due to economic activity and the influx of citizens from other cities, the desire of local residents to exchange old housing for new, higher quality and modern ones, as well as due to the tendency to reduce the total area of ​​apartments. In other large Russian cities, where new construction is underway and general economic development is taking place, activity on the real estate market should not slow down, but much depends on the policy of local authorities, Anisimova notes.

The year 2022 will be challenging for home developers, says Danila Shechkov, head of the real estate advisory group at Deloitte. “We expect that it will be characterized by stagnation in prices and a drop in demand year-on-year in most regions of the country, both in the primary and secondary markets. In an effort to keep prices and margins at the same level, most developers will be forced to reduce sales rates. With high demand and projects with a good economy, this situation can be maintained for a long time, but in some regions with oversupply, developers will have to give in to the market and go for price adjustments, "he says.

After the change in the preferential mortgage program, prices continued to grow, but much more slowly, notes Elena Ivankina, scientific director of additional education at the Faculty of Market Technologies of the IOM RANEPA. Developers began to actively offer discounts.

Among the reasons for the rise in prices in 2021 are an increased demand for real estate due to preferential mortgages, a fall in the ruble, a decrease in the key rate and interest on deposits, the introduction of escrow accounts, an increase in salaries for builders due to a shortage of labor, an increase in prices for building materials, says Ivankina. .. Some of them are no longer relevant. The preferential mortgage in the regions with the most active construction is no longer valid, the key rate and interest on bank deposits are increasing, this somewhat slows down the rise in prices. However, only one mechanism can significantly affect them - a significant increase in construction volumes, Ivankina believes. At the same time, developers will be able to earn not by increasing profits from one object, but by increasing the turnover of funds.

bbabo.Net