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America is pulling one way, China the other: will the global economy sink or swim?

Economists are split between those who see the world economy coming together and those who believe its major trading blocs are heading in opposite directions. It might only be a couple of weeks before we find out who is right.

On 16 December Janet Yellen, the head of the US central bank, is expected to push up interest rates for the first time since 2006. The nudge upwards from 0.25% to 0.5% may not seem like the Federal Reserve’s most momentous financial intervention, but 18 months ago even the thought of such a move caused panic across the world.

Back then, the eurozone was still a long way from cobbling together a deal to end the Greek crisis, Japan was struggling and China was beginning to feel the after-effects of its post-crisis borrowing binge. A rise in the cost of borrowing US dollars was the last thing these countries needed.

America is pulling one way, China the other: will the global economy sink or swim?