Russia (bbabo.net), - Since the beginning of the year, wholesale prices for automotive fuel in Russia have increased by 5-9%, depending on the brand. Retail prices have risen not so much. According to Rosstat, the rise in gasoline prices has not yet exceeded the inflation rate (0.88%), since the end of last year - by 0.6%. The rise in diesel prices has already overtaken inflation - 1.3%. The greatest risk of further rise in price is associated with the upward movement of oil prices. They rose by almost 13% in less than a month, reaching $91 per barrel for the first time since 2014.
Gas station prices are under strict government control. The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) is now conducting checks in the regions for overstating the retail price of fuel. Cases have already been initiated against two companies in the Nizhny Novgorod region, which, according to the FAS, sold gasoline at prices significantly higher than the level of expenses.
But gas station prices are not taken from the ceiling. They are tied to the wholesale cost of fuel, which is already 35% lower in Russia than in Europe for gasoline and 27% for diesel. With further growth in oil prices, this difference will increase. But wholesale prices in Russia will not remain at the same level, they will rise, albeit not as sharply as in Europe, where the cost of petroleum products most of all depends on barrel quotations.
In our country, the growth will be caused by an increase in the cost of raw materials and an increase in the mineral extraction tax (MET) for oil companies, which is calculated based on the cost of oil in dollars and paid at the exchange rate in rubles. It is also worth noting that, despite the rise in oil prices, since the beginning of the year the dollar has grown from 74.3 to 78 rubles, which also increases the cost of fuel in Russia.
If the dollar exchange rate remains unchanged against the ruble and the discount in selling prices of domestic fuel producers relative to export prices, an increase in oil quotations to $95 per barrel may lead to an increase in the price of AI-92 on the wholesale market by another 5% to 55 thousand rubles, the head of IG projects believes " Petromarket" Anna Lishnevetskaya.
To curb the growth of wholesale prices in Russia, a damping mechanism is in place, which makes it possible to keep them well below European prices. It is calculated from the base prices set by the state and compensates oil companies from the budget for part of the lost profits from exports when they supply gasoline and diesel to the domestic market. In 2021, the damper returned 68%. In December, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Novak said that the increase in the base price for calculating the damper in 2022 will be 3%, not 5%, as planned. Also, the amount of compensation will be increased to 83%. Moreover, this was said when a barrel of oil cost about 78 dollars, and a dollar - 74 rubles.
But the bill on these changes has not yet been submitted for discussion. The Ministry of Energy reported that the department, together with the Ministry of Finance, is working on making changes to the fuel damper as soon as possible. Earlier, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov said that most likely the bill would be prepared in the spring, and the new damper parameters would come into force only on July 1 this year.
Accordingly, the question arises, what will happen to retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel as a result? According to Lishnevetskaya, the cost of fuel at filling stations will continue to grow regardless of the dynamics of wholesale prices at a similar rate to inflation, as the net margin of gasoline trade at filling stations is rapidly dwindling.
According to Petromarket estimates as of January 26, the sale of 1 liter of AI-92 at gas stations on average already brings only 1.5 rubles of net margin against 2.5 rubles at the end of 2021. The margin of trade in AI-95 is 3.1 rubles per liter sold, and the margin of trade in diesel fuel, both summer and winter, has gone into the negative zone - minus 0.9 and minus 6.5 rubles per liter sold. The gas station operators themselves call the level of marginality acceptable for normal operation - 5-6 rubles per liter.
In order to curb the rise in prices at gas stations, the Federal Antimonopoly Service introduced for discussion a draft law on increasing the standards for sales on the exchange of gasoline from 11% to 12%, and diesel fuel - from 7.5% to 8.5%. This will increase the supply of fuel in the domestic market, and if it greatly outstrips demand, then, accordingly, prices will decrease.
But, as Deputy General Director of the Institute of National Energy Alexander Frolov noted, this measure is quite standard and will not have a special impact on the market. Deliveries to the exchange of the largest players already exceed the increased rate. Rising prices are usually associated with changes in the tax nature, and not with a lack of supply on the exchange.
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