Moldova (bbabo.net), - Professor of the Higher School of Economics, Ph.D. in Political Science Dmitry EVSTAFIEV answered the questions of Sergey MARDAN, host of the Komsomolskaya Pravda radio station, about why there is such a smell of gunpowder between Russia and the West, which could just explode.
THIS IS A DISMANTLING OF "YARD TO YARD" - EVERYONE SHOWED THEIR FORCE AND DISPARTED TO "THINK"
Sergey Mardan:
- Let's try to play a game called "geopolitics". Russia-NATO negotiations. Well, in this context, Kazakhstan. What is going on? How do you evaluate all this? Positive? Anxious?
Dmitry Evstafiev:
In general, for the circle, I evaluate it positively. We tried - and, mind you, everyone - Russia, the United States, Europe, and various behind-the-scenes villains, to play an element of the Great Game, choosing for this a country that you don’t feel sorry for. This country turned out to be Kazakhstan. It turned out that no one really felt sorry for her. And this is a big hint to Kazakhstan, where they decided that they could also have their own globe.
What can I say? So far, no one is pulling the Big Game. A little more of it is pulled by all sorts of British, but only because they know how to escape in time.
It is in the context of this that the Russia-USA and Russia-NATO negotiations should be taken. This is also an element of the Great Game, which answers the question: are we ready for the big deal? No, not ready.
Therefore, everyone showed their strength, everyone looked at each other and dispersed to "think."
The only thing that was absolutely superfluous was a conversation with NATO. I understand this as a person who once worked in NATO - there is definitely nothing to talk about with them.
And everything else - yes, evaluating the enemy during a showdown yard by yard. That's all.
YOU SHOULD TALK TO THE BULLDOG, NOT TO THE GREAT GROUNDS
Mardan:
- So no one initially with NATO, it seems, was going to talk. In the draft Security Treaty between Russia and the United States, in general, it was said that two countries should come to an agreement, and all the rest, including NATO, are their number sixteen. And, nevertheless, agreed to a meeting with NATO. What for?
Evstafiev:
- I'm asking exactly the same question. Number sixteen? They don't even have a number! NATO is just a propaganda platform, as we brilliantly saw. I didn’t see anything but the exercises of Stoltenberg, who produced an increasingly less adequate impression. That's why it was necessary to throw this chicken - I emphasize - a bone - to the European allies of the United States - I do not understand. Well, if we have chosen the United States as our partner, then let's not be distracted by various incomprehensible lapdogs, livrettos. Talk to the bulldog!
Notice how meaningful the conversation with the bulldog, Biden, was silent on the results. And there was a propaganda extravaganza with NATO.
NO ONE HEARD ABOUT RYABKOV, AND HE IS THE STRONGEST FIGURE!
Mardan:
- And the conversation before this between the deputy foreign ministers of Russia and the United States - Ryabkov and Sherman, is this generally serious?
Evstafiev:
- He is the most serious. Let's be honest here. That's what to talk about with Blinken (US Secretary of State. - Ed.)? I am an extremely cynical person, but even I don’t know what to talk about with him? Even in Washington they don't know what to talk about with Blinken! He will now be quietly deported somewhere to a more responsible area. And Sherman and Ryabkov today are the best negotiators in Russia and the United States. There are no questions here.
Mardan:
- Do you rate Sherman that highly? We have never heard of her before.
Evstafiev:
- You might think that many of us have heard about Ryabkov. And he is one of the strongest figures in the world! Well, Sherman - yes, there is a problem with age. The Komsomol member is approaching the age of leaving the Komsomol... But this is the best that the United States has. Better not. If you don't want to talk to Sherman, you have to talk to Nuland, but that's definitely not an option.
THE AMERICANS WANTED THAT THE FIRE IN KAZAKHSTAN WILL WEAKEN US. AND IT HAPPENED TO THE BACK
Mardan:
- Returning to Kazakhstan. Was the introduction of the CSTO troops a lucky coincidence before the start of negotiations with NATO?
Evstafiev:
- First of all, let's not exaggerate. The operation was limited in scope. About three thousand paratroopers. This is not the Kursk Bulge even once.
Nevertheless, only three countries can perform such an operation in such a time frame in the modern world. Actually, two and a half. These are the USA, Russia and a half, maybe - France. Therefore, welcome to the club of countries that are able to play the Geopolitical game!
For us, it was an unfortunate set of circumstances BEFORE the CSTO operation. And it looks very strong AFTER the CSTO operation.
Accordingly, the mood of the Americans deteriorated. They were on their way to negotiations without a plan B. Plan A is to put pressure on us, to scare us with the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO. And expect that we will come with Kazakhstan flaming, very weakened. But it turned out differently.
CHINA IN KAZAKHSTAN Yawned. SECOND TIME - DON'T Yawn.
Mardan:
- In the future, how do you assess the relationship between the US and China in this context? And in this configuration, where will Russia's place after the events in Kazakhstan be? There is no way to get away from Kazakhstan now, it seems to me, for some time.
D. Evstafiev:- It is quite obvious that Kazakhstan is a “holiday” that will be with us for the next five years. Because the second time China will not blunder. And now he yawned.
What has the situation in Kazakhstan shown? Three things.
which can be easily ignited.
That in order to capture cities, many people are not needed.
And third. This is bad for everyone. China from the fact that Kazakhstan will burn, is it bad? Badly. Is Russia with a common border of almost 8,000 kilometers bad? Badly. Uzbekistan is unbearable!
And who is good? Americans. Was there at least one pogrom in companies owned by the Americans or the British? No. Everywhere was on fire. And they were running out of money. Therefore, the United States worked out the scheme. We also worked out the scheme. China yawned. And everyone retreated to the positions from which they started. Kazakhstan remained in the center of this ashes, where they decided that everything would be as before.
Will not be. This is the first.
Second. You have to be very naive not to understand that the Americans have been considering the Caspian region as one of the centers of a new geopolitical game for 2-2.5 years. It is unacceptable for the US that Russia should consolidate around itself the industrial core of Eurasia. This is the goal of the United States, and not to intimidate us with the expansion of NATO.
The States, unlike many of our people who fall into hysterics at the word "NATO", know the price of NATO. And they know that NATO, with the exception of a couple of countries, is a burden. A couple of countries are Great Britain on the sea and Poland on land. The rest is a burden. And if the States decide to seriously wave with us, they will definitely do it without NATO.
YOU CAN'T DO WITHOUT A HARD CONFLICT
Mardan:
- It's time to realize the moment in which Russia found itself. Everyone draws parallels with the Caribbean crisis. And you write in your telegram channel that this is generally the time between 1949 and right up to the early 1970s. When there were a number of conflicts between us and the United States (the bloodiest, of course, was the war in Korea, where millions of dead were counted). Could this be true? For example, the war in Ukraine?
Evstafiev:
- Yes, I think that without a major violent conflict with the victims, the situation will not be resolved. Let's not forget that the United States came to détente through tens of thousands of victims in Vietnam. And before that there was the Korean War, really the bloodiest.
The main thing for us is to avoid a Caribbean crisis. The Cuban Missile Crisis is the icing on the cake. The main thing for us is to avoid the Korean War. I think it's still possible. But everything else - the Berlin Crisis of 1949, when our tanks stood barrel to barrel straight, resting against each other, and Hungary in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968, and the Cuban Missile Crisis - this is in the zone of a very serious possibility.
AMERICANS ARE SURE RUSSIA WILL MERGE
Mardan:
- Do the Americans realize that both Putin's ultimatum and this series of negotiations are all serious? That Russia is not just raising the stakes?
Evstafiev:
- No... In America, of course, there are smart people who believe that Russia is serious. But for the most part, Americans are absolutely sure that all this is another Russian manipulation in order to raise rates, and then merge, having negotiated concessions for themselves, easing sanctions. They believe that our elite is ready to surrender. But on certain honorable terms, which these Russians negotiate for themselves.
The Americans do not understand that this time Russia's ultimatum is serious. And she won't melt.
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