Russia (bbabo.net), - In Ekaterinburg, the supply of new buildings in the coming year will remain high. The secondary market will begin to grow, because now there is a shortage of assortment. Consumer demand will be slightly lower than in 2021, and the price per square meter will continue to rise, although not at the same pace as before.

Such a forecast was made by experts from the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers (UD). The past year has been a year of contrasts for the housing sector. On the one hand, never before has so much been built in the Middle Urals - the construction of 3.4 million square meters is at different stages. On the other hand, the supply structure is dominated by small apartments (up to 48 square meters), while prices are rising. Over the past year, they have risen by 20 percent, for two pandemic - by 37 and exceeded 100-120 thousand rubles per square meter.

Taking into account the fact that 66 percent of the top-up agreements in 2021 were concluded with the involvement of a mortgage (the peak of demand was recorded in June - 75 percent), while the average transaction budget did not exceed five million rubles, the population does not have much free money. Therefore, consumers are forced to take odnushki, compact eurodvushki, but in fact, one-room with a large kitchen-dining room. But a family of 3-4 people cannot fit in the studio, so demand gradually shifted to secondary housing, which did not rise in price so sharply - plus 16 percent per year (up to 92 thousand rubles per square meter). In addition, it is far from old: about 40 percent of the apartments are under 20 years old.

However, analysts believe that in Yekaterinburg the rise in prices was not yet as sharp as, for example, in Sochi, where today the average cost of a square has reached half a million rubles.

- Rise in prices frightens everyone, but by doing so, developers compensate for the losses of other periods and inflation. In 2011-2014, the cost of housing was stable, in 2015-2016 it even decreased. Now it is rising taking into account the consumer price index and the general inflationary background, - explains Mikhail Khorkov, head of the analytical department of the Ural Chamber of Real Estate.

Assessing the prospects for next year, he invites developers to closely monitor consumer behavior. Last year they actively "ran away" from inflation, wishing to keep their savings. Those who did not have enough funds, took loans.

- When the market is based not on real opportunities, but on the ability to borrow, the demand pendulum can quickly swing the other way, the analyst warns.

The pandemic has done its job: every family member wants at least a minimum of private space

In Chelyabinsk, the market is not so overheated: people do not move here as actively as to Moscow, St. Petersburg or neighboring Yekaterinburg. Basically, intra-regional migration prevails in the Southern Urals, the UD states. But prices in the regional center have also grown significantly: for primary housing - by 25 percent per year, for secondary housing - by 15-17. And taking into account the fact that the base was much lower than in Yekaterinburg (until 2021, a square meter in a new building was sold at an average of 50 thousand rubles), this did not hit the consumer wallet so hard.

- Buyers give preference to finished housing. If earlier Chelyabinsk was predominantly a panel city, respectively, the average number of storeys was 10+, then with the advent of monolithic projects, we already see 16-18 floors. Architectural and planning solutions are also changing. Another trend of the year: the concept of a residential complex is more important than the location, - says Valentin Korytny, authorized representative of the UD in Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region.

According to his observations, studios and one-room apartments are in demand on the outskirts, where there is a river and a forest nearby. Such apartments are most often bought by people of pre-retirement and retirement age. In developing areas, two- and three-room apartments are more popular - the pandemic has done its job, every family member wants at least a minimum of private space.

- Next year, 5-7 new projects will be brought to the market of the city in different areas, including those where there is still a shortage of modern housing. In January-February, people will mature before making a decision. A change in the mortgage rate will, of course, have an effect, but this does not mean that they will stop buying, it just takes time to get used to the new prices, Korytny predicts. - Demand will be high for new, unique projects for Chelyabinsk, as well as for relatively "young" secondary housing - no older than 12 years.

Meanwhile

An indisputable opinion was expressed at a round table in Kommersant-Ural by Andrey Bril, authorized representative of the UD in Yekaterinburg and the Sverdlovsk region. According to him, the main reason for the price jump is not preferential mortgages, but other factors: inflation and the transition to escrow. "Everyone is grieving, but no one thinks that real estate is an asset of the population, which is mortgaged, inherited, etc. When housing prices fall in the country, this is a direct road to a crisis," he stressed.

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