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Blocks Poroshenko's PR. Why Zelensky cancels military service

Vladimir Zelensky has decided to celebrate conscription in Ukraine. By decree of the Ukrainian leader, the country's army should almost completely switch to a contract basis by 2024, simultaneously increasing its strength by 100,000 people. Experts see a political motive in Zelensky's decision, since new presidential elections are expected in the country in two years. At the same time, the very refusal of conscripts looks real, but rather complicated due to the financial side of the issue. The new decree of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky No. 36/2022 provides for an increase in the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by 100 thousand people by 2025, including through the creation of 20 new professional teams. At the same time, the order provides for a complete rejection of the conscription of citizens of the state for urgent military service.

According to official figures, the strength of the Ukrainian army is about 261 thousand people, that is, Zelensky's decree requires it to be increased by almost a third. The simultaneous abolition of military service in favor of contract service actually turns the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a fully professional army. At the same time, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine should introduce a model of an intensive military training system, which, in fact, will become an alternative to military service.

Separately, the document mentions an increase in the terms of service under the contract, as well as an increase in salaries for military contractors to at least three times the minimum wage, the development of a program for the military to receive housing and the introduction of a system for evaluating military personnel.

Why does Zelensky need to cancel military service

The decision to refuse compulsory military service can hardly be called something revolutionary for Ukraine. The discussion of such a step began at the beginning of the 2000s, and by 2013 it was implemented by the Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych. True, the country did not exist for too long without a mandatory conscription - in 2014, after the coup d'état and the start of the war in Donbass, military service was restored.

The interviewed experts agree that in the current situation, the refusal of military service is largely due to Zelensky's pre-election interests. Thus, Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute for Policy Analysis and Management, noted that parliamentary and presidential elections should be held in the country in 2023-2024.

“The cancellation of conscription is likely to affect the loyalty of young people to Zelensky and the authorities in general. Because these plans are very popular among young people who are mostly reluctant to serve. Most likely, this is why Zelensky adopted this decree now.

In addition, the President of Ukraine is trying to knock out the “military card” from Petro Poroshenko, who recently campaigned to increase the income of military personnel. By his decree, Zelensky to some extent blocked Poroshenko’s PR on military topics, ”the expert added.

Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the board of the Penta Ukrainian Center for Applied Political Research, partly agrees with this opinion. According to him, this decree does have certain political motives.

“In 2024, the country should hold presidential elections. The theme of the abolition of military conscription has always resonated, especially among women voters. So the motivation for such a decision is not only in terms of military policy, but also from the point of view of the mood of a part of society, ”the expert said.

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Will Ukraine give up conscripts

Complete renunciation of military service and transfer of the army to a contract basis by 2024 implies a significant increase in funding for the army, especially taking into account plans to increase the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and raise salaries for the military.

From the point of view of Volodymyr Fesenko from the Penta Center for Applied Political Research, the financial issue is crucial, so the plans of the Ukrainian authorities may not materialize.

"It's impossible to switch to a professional army quickly.

The discussion about this has been going on for a long time, back in 2006 it was promoted by Yulia Tymoshenko. However, this is not so easy to implement, since it requires serious organizational restructuring and large financial reserves. Finance is the most important and difficult issue here. The very process of refusing the call is likely to go in stages, ”the expert explained.

The presence of this problem is also noted by Ruslan Bortnyk from the Ukrainian Institute for Policy Analysis and Management. According to him, this decision increases costs, since contract service is more expensive than draft service.

“Potentially, only 20% of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conscripts, and the rest are contract soldiers or civilians. Therefore, in principle, the abolition of military conscription is quite possible, although this increases costs, since contract service is more expensive than conscript service.

Moreover, the government promises to compensate for the refusal of conscripts with enhanced military training of high school students. That is, the price of pre-army training of Ukrainian youth will increase,” the expert added.

How it will affect mobilization

Speaking of any changes in Ukraine in the context of the formation of the country's army, one should not forget about the armed conflict on its territory, which has been going on for 8 years. During this time, Kiev resorted to the mobilization of its citizens several times, and whether the rejection of conscripts can affect such measures in the future is an important point.

According to Ruslan Bortnik, in order to answer this question, Zelensky's decree should be considered in the context of Ukraine's new policy on accounting for military personnel, including women, innovations in territorial defense and training of high school students.

“If we manage to achieve progress in all areas, then there will be no negative impact on the mobilization capabilities of Ukraine. However, if work in these areas fails, then the refusal of military service may affect the mobilization of the country.

Potentially, by 2025, Ukraine will be able to significantly increase the army and increase its mobilization reserves - up to approximately 2-3 million people.

That is, the country will become a very militarized and mobilized state,” the expert said.

From Bortnik's point of view, the implementation of all innovations may even indirectly affect Ukraine's interaction with Russia. According to him, this is due to the fact that Kiev can become a more serious adversary.

“This may increase the likelihood of a military solution to the conflict in Donbass, or, conversely, increase the possibility of reaching a compromise between the parties, since military experiments will become too expensive and complicated,” the expert added.

In turn, Vladimir Fesenko from the Penta Center for Applied Political Research agrees that the abolition of military service will probably not affect mobilization in any way.

“Refusal from military service does not cancel mobilization in case of martial law. Moreover, now the country is creating an institution of territorial defense or national resistance, which will become a permanent reserve for the army - especially in the event of a full-scale war. Also here (in the abolition of urgent conscription) we are not talking about any problems for mobilization in case of war, ”the expert concluded.

Blocks Poroshenko's PR. Why Zelensky cancels military service