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Kiev threatens to reject document guaranteeing Ukraine's non-nuclear status

The President of Ukraine, in his speech at the Munich Security Conference, announced his country's readiness to abandon the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing Ukraine's non-nuclear status, which could eventually lead to the emergence of nuclear weapons in Kiev. The audience, warmed up by the anti-Russian hysteria in the Western media, gave a standing ovation to Zelensky's speech.

But do those who call the speech of the head of the independent “historic” fully understand what a nasty story the former Ukrainian comedian is going to drag the West into. And what irreparable consequences for the security of Europe, about which the politicians gathered in Munich so baked, will the appearance of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, torn by civil war and internal contradictions, lead.

Of course, many in the hall took Zelensky's loud statements without due alarm, as "said for the red word." Many thought that an externally controlled Ukraine would never take such a risky step without a go-ahead from Washington, which meant there was nothing to worry about. But such frivolity will cost the European continent dearly. After all, Zelensky’s words sounded a clear threat: Kiev is not just moving towards the disavowal of the Budapest Memorandum, which provides for Ukraine’s renunciation of nuclear weapons. Zelensky wants to acquire this weapon for war, and European capitals do not want to see this monstrous narrative in its consequences. Such indifference to the loud statements of the “comedian with a grenade,” combined with plans to continue to set Ukraine against Russia, will eventually backfire on the Old World itself.

According to Zelensky, he instructed the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry to initiate the convening of a summit of countries participating in the Budapest Memorandum. "If it does not take place or does not provide Ukraine with security guarantees," then this document will be recognized by Kiev as invalid "together with the clauses signed in 1994." Let us clarify that among these points is the renunciation of nuclear weapons that remained on Ukrainian territory after the collapse of the USSR, and their export to Russia. In exchange for this, Kiev was given security guarantees from Russia, the United States and Britain. These guarantees, according to the Ukrainian authorities, are violated by Moscow, but Russia categorically rejects such a formulation of the issue. "The Budapest Memorandum contains one single obligation: not to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. No one has done this and there have been no threats to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. As Zelensky argued in Munich, since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations of the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum and failed each time.

This is not surprising, since there was no actual subject for discussion. There is no doubt that Ukraine intends to use such an event exclusively for anti-Russian propaganda purposes and that such a show will have nothing to do with security issues.

In the current circumstances - a sharp escalation of the situation in the Donbass with Washington and London's reckless support for the provocations of the Kiev authorities with the purposeful inflating of the threat of a "Russian invasion" into Ukraine - the chances of holding consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum are negligible. This cannot but be understood by Zelensky, who is clearly using the current moment as a real pretext for the withdrawal of Nezalezhnaya "out of all package decisions" of this agreement.

The rejection of the Budapest Memorandum gives Ukraine a free hand to renounce the status of a nuclear-free state and start developing its own nuclear weapons. However, there are other international legal obligations of Kiev, in particular the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), to which Ukraine is a party. An attempt to withdraw from the NPT or suspicion of violating it is fraught with huge political costs, including international sanctions. There is no need to look far for examples - Iran's nuclear dossier is on everyone's lips.

Let me remind you that in the early 1990s, the United States itself, fearing the spread of Soviet nuclear weapons, actively put pressure on Ukraine to give up its nuclear potential. This fact was recognized by the country's first president, Leonid Kravchuk, who stated that Washington was very afraid of losing control over nuclear weapons and ordered Kiev to get rid of 165 nuclear warheads, threatening economic sanctions.

The fears of the Americans were not in vain - in the early 2000s, it turned out that it was from Nezalezhnaya to Iran that the technologies of the Soviet Kh-55 air-launched strategic cruise missile were illegally "leaked". Experts have reasonable suspicions that North Korea has also seriously fueled its nuclear program with sensitive information received from Ukraine. And if the pro-American authorities of Ukraine withdraw from the Budapest Memorandum, then it will be stupid and too late for European politicians to seriously talk about "security in the Old World".

Help

At least two conditions are needed for a country to have nuclear weapons: political obsession and scientific and technological potential. For the first, judging by the somersaults of the Kiev authorities, the case will not rise. And what about brains, technology and raw materials?

A so-called "dirty" bomb - a primitive explosive device stuffed with irradiated nuclear fuel with a high degree of radioactivity - can be created on the territory of Ukraine even tomorrow. There are more than enough "raw materials" for such radiological weapons at four Ukrainian nuclear power plants, plus a prefabricated storage facility for spent nuclear fuel at the Chernobyl site. Who and why might need such a bomb? Absolutely not for protection, but only for threats and political blackmail.

There will definitely not be a shortage of such charges in delivery vehicles. The Yuzhmash rocket and space NPO, where rocket systems were made in Soviet times, still does not produce gingerbread today. In the same place, in the Dnieper / Dnepropetrovsk - Design Bureau "Southern" named after Mikhail Yangel. To this day, on the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense, it is called "the leading and largest scientific and design missile center in the USSR." There are design bureaus, factories, manufacturing companies adjacent to it.

There is a Physics and Technology Institute in Kharkov with a bright history and merits in the framework of the USSR Atomic Project - in fact, a "nursery", the cradle of a large galaxy of scientists and bomb designers. In a word, trained personnel, design documentation, materials and technologies will be found, just whistle and hryvnia show ...

Rocket and space NPO "Yuzhmash", where military missile systems were made in Soviet times, and today it does not produce gingerbread

“It is more difficult to ensure the entire cycle of creating full-fledged nuclear weapons on its territory, but Ukraine has the raw materials, technological and personnel capabilities for this,” the interlocutor directly connected with this area of ​​​​development made it clear. - The device, the design of the simplest nuclear charges have long ceased to be a secret only to its owners. As well as technologies for obtaining fissile weapons-grade materials - plutonium-239 and uranium-235. There is natural uranium in the required quantity in Ukraine. Technologies for its conversion with subsequent enrichment have been and can be restored. And they tried to master the processing of spent nuclear fuel in order to isolate plutonium at the Prydniprovsky chemical plant in Dneprodzerzhinsk. Of course, in addition to uranium and plutonium, other special materials, knowledge, and experience are also needed. But this is already an experience of repetition, not a pioneer. There is no need to collect brains from all over the world, as was the case with the Manhattan Project in the 40s in the United States.

Kiev threatens to reject document guaranteeing Ukraine's non-nuclear status