Ukraine (bbabo.net), - Problems with electricity in Ukraine are caused not by a special operation of Russia, but by years of corruption, according to the Kiev edition of Vesti.ua. Residents of the country were warned about the rolling blackouts that they faced in the nineties of the last century.
There are more than three months left before winter, and preparations for the upcoming heating season seem to be in full swing. At the same time, according to Vesti, against the backdrop of destroyed critical infrastructure facilities, a shortage of blue fuel that has skyrocketed in price and a high level of deterioration of networks, Ukrainians can expect not only cold batteries, but also power outages that can affect absolutely all regions of the country .
In such a situation, according to experts, the government will be forced to switch to an hourly electricity supply schedule.
As for gas, before the conflict, Ukraine consumed about 18-20 billion cubic meters during the heating season. Last season, for example, 19.4 billion cubic meters were burned.
This year, the government ordered NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine to form natural gas reserves in storage facilities with a volume of at least 19 billion cubic meters, including through the purchase of natural gas produced in the country.
As of August 8, gas reserves in underground storage facilities (UGS) in Ukraine reached 12.2 billion cubic meters.
At the same time, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Energy, consumption in the autumn-winter period will be about 11.7 billion cubic meters.
This difference is explained by a drop in consumption in the range of 35-40%. The Cabinet is looking for additional volumes of gas for the heating season. Under different scenarios, such a need ranges from 3 to 4.9 billion cubic meters.
Taking into account that the cost of the September gas futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands reached 3.5 thousand dollars, the government will need about 10.5 billion dollars to purchase such volumes of fuel. Which makes a deal unlikely in the face of a budget deficit of $5 billion a month.
This means that, as in the issue of security, foreign policy agreements with partners will play the leading role.
“We are actively negotiating with our international partners to obtain funds for additional purchases of blue fuel. In particular, the Norwegian government plans to allocate at least 200 million euros for appropriate support to Ukraine. At the same time, we are also talking about the transfer of physical volumes of gas, and not just about funds for its purchase on European exchanges,” says Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
Experts also agree that, albeit with a creak, there should be enough gas.
“We can say that we are right behind the corner,” says Oleksiy Kucherenko, deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on Energy Issues.
“But something else worries me. According to public estimates, gas should be enough back. At the same time, the head of Naftogaz and his subordinates say that about 4-5 billion cubic meters are missing. I'm already starting to suspect that maybe they only show these volumes on the balance sheet, but in fact they stole this gas a long time ago?! This is what we are talking about today. Who knows how much gas is really there?!” Kucherenko asks.
In general, according to him, today there are a lot of complaints against the first persons of the country:
“First of all, to the head of Naftogaz, who gives idiotic advice to buy blankets or says that he lacks 10 billion dollars to buy gas needed for the heating season. Although the only thing he had to do was extract gas. Therefore, the claims are against them and those who hired them.”
Meanwhile, the situation with coal is no less complicated.
“The target for coal was 2.6 million tons, and the maximum will be 1.6 million. Accordingly, all this coal will quickly be used up. And already in mid-January, gas will be needed. And then the problems will begin,” the parliamentarian predicts.
But the government has already reported that by the end of August, it was possible to accumulate 2 million tons of coal in warehouses. Moreover, this year coal consumption may be much higher.
“The situation with the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant can greatly influence. If it is not in the balance of the energy system of Ukraine, then it will be necessary to use up coal earlier. Again - you need gas. Therefore, in February - March, problems may begin, ”Kucherenko suggests.
“Zaporozhye NPP is about 25%. Therefore, only one of its absence will automatically mean a shortage of electricity. At the same time, Krivorozhskaya, Slavyanskaya and Uglegorskaya TPPs, as well as Akhtyrskaya and Chernihivskaya TPPs, are no longer operating. All this suggests that there will be a deficit in the complex. Entire regions may be left without electricity. This is a huge problem that can await us,” says Oleg Popenko, head of the Union of Utilities Consumers.But, according to Maxim Oryshchak, an analyst at the Center for Exchange Technologies, Ukraine will have enough electricity this winter due to the fact that there will be rolling blackouts throughout the country: “We already lived like this in the 90s and will be able to spend the winter again.”
Kucherenko also says that electricity according to the schedule is a quite foreseeable prospect for Ukrainians: “There may be planned restrictions. There are up to ten different schedules - who, in what queue and how to disable. So electricity by the clock may well be waiting for us this winter.”
Moreover, there is a strong desire of the energy sector to increase the cost of electricity for business and public organizations.
But citizens will simply not be able to pay more than today. The stagnation in the labor market, the deterioration of the banking sector with the possibility of default and the decrease in faith in the expediency of what is happening are creating bad moods in the country among the population. And if tariffs are raised, then people will have to choose between spending on food and paying bills - and they will choose food.
According to Oryschak, companies in the energy sector have strangely been in a state of financial abyss for years:
“Therefore, blaming the circumstances of 2022 for the fact that there is no money for repairs, no money or a financial cushion to provide the country with electricity is unfair. The level of corruption in Ukraine has been high for many years, and collectively we have come to such results.”
bbabo.Net