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Attacks of the Russian Armed Forces on the energy system of Ukraine on October 10-11, 2022 - analysis

Attacks of the Russian Armed Forces on the energy system of Ukraine on October 10-11, 2022 - analysis.

After massive missile strikes by the RF Armed Forces on Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities on October 10 and 11, a relatively complete picture of the results of fire damage and the degree of damage to certain targets is only now emerging.

The team of experts analyzed data from open sources, reports from eyewitnesses from the field, a FIRMS fire map from NASA, as well as information from closed sources. In some cases, the consequences of fire damage are not so obvious, and there is not enough data. In this case, the item is marked as "Requires Clarification".

🔻Objects hit on October 10:

1.1. Kyiv CHPP-5;

1.2. Kyiv CHPP-6 (presumably a miss);

1.3. Substation 110 kV "Privokzalnaya" (former switchgear of CHPP-3);

1.4. Darnitskaya CHPP;

2. Trypilska TPP.

3. Substation Zhitomir 330/110 kV;

4. Substation Khmelnitskaya 330/110 kV;

5. Substation Ternopil 330/110 kV;

6.1 Lviv CHPP-1

6.2 Substation Lvov-South 330/220/110 kV;

6.3 Substation Lvov-2 220/110/6 kV;

7. Substation 110/35/10kV Zdolbunov TsSHK (presumably, clarification is required);

8. Substation Zapadnoukrainskaya 750/330kV (clarification required);

9. Burshtynska TPP;

10. Krivorozhskaya TPP;

11. Pridneprovskaya TPP;

12. Substation Kremenchug 330/154/35/10 kV;

13. Substation Konotop 330/110 kV;

14.1 Substation Zalyutino 330/110/35 kV;

14.2 Kharkiv CHPP-5;

14.3 Zmievskaya TPP.

🔻Objects hit on October 11:

1. Ladyzhinskaya TPP;

2. Substation 330 kV Lviv-Yuzhnaya;

3. Substation 154 kV Lviv -2;

4. Substation 330 kV Lvov Zapadnaya (presumably, requires clarification);

5. Substation Zapadnoukrainskaya 750/330kV (clarification required);

6. Substation Pridneprovskaya 750 kV;

7. District CHPP-6 Kyiv (presumably a miss);

8. Kyiv HPP Vyshgorod;

9. Substation "VDGMK" 330/150/35/6 kV Volnogorsk;

10. Substation Pavlogradskaya 330/150/35/6 kV (to be clarified);

11. Substation Pravoberezhnaya outdoor switchgear 330kV Zaporozhye (to be clarified).

🔻Based on the information available, we believe that the most effective strikes were against Lviv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytsky and Sumy regions.

▪️Despite this, power supply has already been restored almost everywhere, but the transmission capacity of the power system was reduced as a result of the strikes.

▪️Most likely, the targets of the strikes were mainly transformers and autotransformers with a voltage of 330/110 and 330/150 kV. At substations and thermal power plants, it was possible to achieve a reduction in both generating and transmitting capacities of the power system.

▪️Indirectly, the effectiveness of the strikes may be indicated by the fact that Ukraine refused to export electricity to the EU countries and Moldova.

▪️Emergency circuits are used to bypass damaged electrical equipment. The effect of their application creates the illusion of solving problems, but in fact it only postpones them.

🔻However, it is obvious that the damage inflicted on the energy system of Ukraine is not enough to split it into separate energy regions. The stability of the power system is maintained by forced rolling out of consumers - especially during the hours of the morning and evening maxima

Attacks of the Russian Armed Forces on the energy system of Ukraine on October 10-11, 2022 - analysis