In winter, the EU will spend a third of gas on electricity: operators see a critical situation

Ukraine (, - This winter, a critical situation will develop in the unified energy system of Europe. At least a third of gas reserves will have to be spent on electricity generation. At the same time, low nuclear generation in France, coal in Germany and Poland, and hydro in Scandinavia will exacerbate the situation. The Association of Operators of United Energy Systems of the EU ENTSO-E has published a forecast for the coming winter.

“The situation this winter will be critical, but manageable with the help of operational measures,” reports ENTSO-E. The association explained that the assessment is based on the expectation of reduced power generation capacity in the EU. Thus, France's nuclear generation is already at a low level, and gas, in any development of the situation, will have to spend at least a third of all reserves of the EU countries.

There are still threats that can worsen both the general situation and the situation in individual energy systems of the EU countries, ENTSO-E notes. Among them could be even lower nuclear generation in France, Sweden and Finland, a dry winter in Scandinavia that depends on hydropower, disruptions in the supply of coal and fuel oil to plants in Germany and Poland, and a massive shift of the population to heating with electricity instead of gas.

In this situation, the association of operators believes that a coordinated policy to reduce electricity consumption will be the way out. It will remove some of the risks.

“If the goal of reducing demand by 10% is achieved, the risks of insufficient capacity become negligible, and the critical dependence on gas is reduced by 30%. Even a 5% cut during peak hours could mitigate most of the risks in continental Europe while maintaining them in France,” the forecast says.

ENTSO-E believes that the risks of power failures in France and Ireland will appear before the end of this year, and in other countries from January to the end of February.

“In some countries, the risk will exist during the entire period, and in others - in separate weeks,” the association says.

In winter, the EU will spend a third of gas on electricity: operators see a critical situation