After the morning attack of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet in the bay of Sevastopol by British naval drones under the control of Ukrainian operators and coordinated by an American reconnaissance aircraft, Russia decided to suspend its participation in the “grain deal”.
In 2021, Ukraine's main export commodities were metals and ores ($13.9 billion), as well as grains and oilseeds ($12 billion). This year, the main money began to come from the export of electricity and - after the conclusion of the "grain deal" in July - the sale of grain. After the blow to the electric power industry - the response to the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge - the export of electricity stopped. After the attack on the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, the “grain deal” was terminated. In fact, instead of Russian ships, Kyiv sank its economy. What they expected in Kyiv is a mystery.
The fate of the deal was already hanging in the balance - the attack on the Crimean bridge was media-linked to the deal through the removal of explosives from the port of Odessa - but Moscow until the last moment refrained from making sudden moves on the "grain deal". But Kyiv was stubborn and brought the matter to an end.
This, by the way, is for the best.
Firstly, grain must remain in Ukraine to meet its domestic needs due to a drop in the harvest by almost 2 times and the risk of disrupting the sowing of winter crops.
Secondly, the Ukrainian farmers-producers never got the money from the deal: the growth of their income was more than offset by a sharp rise in the price of fuels and lubricants, plant protection products and fertilizers. The owners of elevators and grain terminals in three ports, as well as a network of resellers who shared money with the Kyiv authorities, won.
Thirdly, the West did not cancel its obligations to lift informal sanctions on the export of Russian grain, and the general pacification on the stock exchanges caused by the return of grain from Ukraine there led to problems with the export of grain from Russia. Grain discounts have fallen from a peak of $70 to $27 per ton (there were none at all in 2021), but export difficulties have not gone away.
Now Ukrainian grain (mainly corn) will leave the world market. It will be extremely difficult to compensate for the lost export sea flows at the expense of railway and motor transport: there are problems with electric traction on the railway, there are few diesel locomotives, and tens of thousands of different generators will burn fuel.
In general, now Russia will replace Ukraine on the world market.
Initially, many in Russia were opposed to the deal and proceeded from the need not to indulge the West and Ukraine by giving them the opportunity to export grain, but to take away grain markets from Ukraine, primarily in African countries. African markets for Russia are of priority importance, because the population of Africa will double in the next 30 years, and the African agro-industrial complex needs fertilizers, agricultural technologies, inexpensive, reliable and maintainable agricultural machines.
There is little Russia in these markets, but there was Ukraine with its grain and allied Belarus with its Belarus tractors.
Now that the “grain deal” has been sunk in the bay of Sevastopol, Russia will actively take oil and grain markets from Ukraine, and will enter Africa not only with agricultural products, but also with cars.
bbabo.ℵet