Belarus (bbabo.net), - The economy of Belarus is gradually adapting after a large-scale shock from sanctions, and its recovery growth is expected in 2023-2024. This is stated in the macroeconomic review of the Eurasian Development Bank for 2023.
According to the bank, the Belarusian economy shrank by 4.7% over the three quarters of 2022.
“Increased sanctions pressure and subsequent breaks in production and logistics chains have become key factors in the decline in economic activity. The physical volumes of deliveries of Belarusian goods abroad decreased by tens of percent, as did imports into the country,” the macroeconomic review notes.
It is reported that in January-September, the decline in industry amounted to 6.1%, cargo transportation - by 25.2%, wholesale trade - by 16.7%, retail trade - by 2.5%. At the same time, it is emphasized that it was possible to maintain economic activity due to the weakening of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian one, which allowed Belarusian export goods to become competitive in the Russian market. Growth in lending to the public sector, as well as the expansion of budget spending, also had a positive effect.
Bank experts note that signs of adaptation to new conditions appeared in the third quarter. For example, the decline in GDP was already 5.5%, and not 7.8%, as in the second quarter. The EDB expects that in the fourth quarter the decline will be 4.6%, and in 2023 GDP will begin to recover by 0.3%, which will continue in 2024 - 0.5%.
“The speed of establishing supply chains remains a key factor of uncertainty. There is still a risk of delaying this process, which is fraught with a deepening recession in the Belarusian economy in 2023 and a continuation of the recession in 2024,” the EDB noted.
Recall that Belarus has been under tough Western sanctions since the end of 2020, which intensified after the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. As a result, the country is experiencing problems in the economy, including a high level of inflation. Minsk hopes to reverse the negative trends as early as next year.
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