Asia (bbabo.net), - At the end of November 2022, unexpected news came from Central Asia: the George Soros Open Society Foundation (a foreign NGO, recognized as undesirable in the Russian Federation), which had been working since the 1990s, announced its withdrawal from Tajikistan. The foundation itself said that the reason for this decision was allegedly the transformation in the organization that began in 2021. How should this event be regarded and what impact will it have on the region?
First, let's say a few words about the activities of the Open Society Foundation in Central Asia. If in the 1990s the Soros Foundation had a rather positive impact on the Central Asian region, as it helped to preserve the cultural and scientific potential of the newly formed states, then in the 2000s it turned into a destructive force that helped organize color revolutions. The first country to show the philanthropist the door was Uzbekistan, which in April 2004 refused to re-register the fund. The President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov then motivated this decision by the fact that Soros' activities are contrary to the national interests of Uzbekistan.
The next country to ban the Soros Foundation was Turkmenistan, which did so in 2010. True, there is evidence that the Soros Foundation has never actually operated in Turkmenistan.
And now the Soros Foundation allegedly decided to leave Tajikistan. In this case, the very moment when the Open Society Foundation leaves Tajikistan is interesting. The fact is that George Soros is a longtime sponsor of the US Democratic Party. No matter what anyone says, the Soros structures are primarily engaged in promoting American influence. Now in the United States, the administration of Democrat Joe Biden is in power. If the pro-American forces do not lie, claiming that the Soros Foundation is leaving Tajikistan under pressure from the authorities following the example of Russia, then President Emomali Rahmon has demonstrated political courage and independence. Let's not forget that Tajikistan is considered almost the poorest country in Central Asia. Against the background of the difficult situation in the world economy, caused by the confrontation between the West and Russia, Soros grants would clearly not be superfluous for Tajikistan. However, it seems that the political threats from the activities of the Soros Foundation exceeded the possible economic dividends.
Of course, there are enough social and economic problems in Tajikistan. The whole trouble lies in the fact that people striving for the political and economic reorientation of Tajikistan from Russia to the West often cover up their destructive activity with active work with social problems. These include Oinikhol Bobonazarova, a former member of the dissident movement in the Tajik SSR, ex-chairman of the board of the Open Society Institute in Tajikistan. Bobonazarova was once a member of the Democratic Party of Tajikistan, which took part in the civil war, and in 2013 she was nominated as the only opposition candidate for the presidency of Tajikistan, and even the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan approved her candidacy. To understand what's what, you need to remember that the militants of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan during the years of the civil war practiced massacres of Russians living in Tajikistan. It is also worth recalling that Soros himself in 2003, during an official visit to Tajikistan, met with the leader of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, Said Abdullo Nuri. If we add to this the fact that one of the elements of Bobonazarova's activity is the struggle for women's rights, it becomes clear that she was brought closer to the Islamists exclusively by the anti-Russian platform, as evidenced by the facts. So, on March 4, 2014, Bobonazarova received the Courageous Woman Award from the US First Lady Michelle Obama, and in May 2019, speaking about the problems of Tajik migrants in Russia, she stated:“In 2018, Russia adopted a national development strategy until 2025, which is fundamentally different from the previous strategy. The new strategy absolutely protects only the state interests of Russia. The Russian Federation is increasing pressure on those states whose citizens come to the Russian Federation to work. Russia requires qualified specialists to come... Under the resettlement program, a large number of citizens move from Tajikistan to Russia. In this regard, we occupy the first place in Central Asia. This is the first. Secondly, they made it so that, like it or not, the migrant immediately falls into a trap. If earlier a labor migrant had the right to register at the place of work, now, under the new Russian legislation, the migrant is obliged to register at the place of residence. Many people who rent apartments do not want to pay taxes, and in this case the tax burden is placed on the shoulders of the tenant, that is, the migrant has to pay for the apartment already taking into account the tax, and again the cost of the labor patent has been increased ... The Migration Service is now under the Ministry of Labor , and information about the operation of the service is scarce. Previously, when the service was separate, it was more accessible and transparent. The Service cooperated with all non-governmental organizations and experts who dealt with labor migration issues. We often met, discussed urgent problems, made expert opinions, and presented them to the government.”
Pay attention, under the guise of human rights, Bobonazarova proposed to turn Russia into a space for declassed migrants from Tajikistan. We must not forget that citizens of Tajikistan and other Central Asian countries often become Islamists while working in Russia in an appropriate migrant environment that is not subject to the Russian authorities. In other words, the activist living in Tajikistan was actually engaged in destructive activities that threatened the national security of Russia.
Therefore, as strange as it may seem, the same Islamists were playing the democratic card with might and main, trying to present the fight against religious extremism as the suppression of the rights and freedoms of citizens by the Tajik authorities.
The departure or reorganization of the Soros Foundation is also important for other reasons. In Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which are members of the Organization of Turkic States, the activities of the Soros structures engaged in anti-Russian activities are flourishing and there is no talk of any reorganization so far. That is, the Open Society Foundation is not a hindrance to the idea of the Turkic world. And Uzbekistan, which got rid of Soros a long time ago, has become a full member of the Organization of Turkic States and at the same time is developing ties with the United States. What does this mean? The multi-vector countries of Central Asia can simultaneously be friends with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who criticizes the West, who squeezed out the Soros fund, and develop cooperation with the United States. It turns out that Tajikistan, economically inferior to the same Kazakhstan, can pursue a more balanced policy, ignoring the Organization of Turkic States and getting rid of the Soros fund. If the fund is reorganized, then it can be assumed that Emomali Rahmon did everything to ensure that the soros in their previous form had no prospects in Tajikistan.
In the context of the development of integration within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States, which Turkey wants to turn into a military-political bloc, Tajikistan willy-nilly have to move closer to Russia and Iran, which are not enthusiastic about Turkic integration associated with a turn to the West. Taking into account the unsettledness of the Tajik-Kyrgyz border conflict, it becomes clear which country Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov hinted at on November 25 during his speech at the First National Kurultai:
“You are well aware that modern security challenges require us to strengthen our defense capabilities, and for this purpose the Ministry of Defense has been re-established and our army is being strengthened. You see efforts to comprehensively strengthen the troops and the country's defense capability. When I took office, we did not have armored military equipment, and at the moment, unprecedented funds have been allocated from the republican budget, which have been used to purchase special armored vehicles of the Tigr brand, heavy army trucks, Bayraktar-TB2 strike unmanned aerial vehicles, "Akynzhi", "Aksungur" and other modern types of weapons and military equipment.
If you note that the UAVs mentioned by Zhaparov are made in Turkey and remember the settlement of border disputes between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, it becomes clear that Bishkek will use Bayraktars against Tajikistan. Considering that speaking about the second Karabakh war in 2020, representatives of the Kyrgyz intelligentsia allow themselves to put Armenians and Tajiks on the same level, calling them aggressors (see Azerbaijan calls Central Asian Turks to Karabakh: how will Armenia respond?), then in this case, the threat of escalation in the Kyrgyz-Tajik border does not look entirely unrealistic.It is clear that in addition to the military-political sphere, there is also an economic one. China, the European Union and other players are trying to do everything for the economic reorientation of the Central Asian region. Russia is taking countermeasures, but they are clearly not enough. Thus, in November, during negotiations between the First Deputy Minister of Energy of Russia Pavel Sorokin and the Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources of Tajikistan Sharifa Khudobakhsh, the parties agreed to increase the supply of Russian oil products at preferential prices to Tajikistan in 2023. And on November 30, representatives of Moscow companies arrived in Dushanbe for negotiations with the Tajik side. Among them were manufacturers of healthy breakfasts Matti, mineral water and soft drinks LLC "Pey-ka", as well as butter and curd products LLC "Kefir-Group". From representatives of other areas, representatives of the IT company CDN Video, Intech, Axelot, Traffic Data, MD Audit and other enterprises arrived in the capital of Tajikistan.
Of course, the establishment of economic ties requires great efforts on the part of Russia as well. An alternative to such efforts will be the economic reorientation of the same Tajikistan towards China or Germany.
The Russian authorities apparently realize that in a confrontation with the West, the loss of Central Asia will be a serious setback. Thus, during a meeting with President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on November 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin put forward the idea of creating a gas union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin spoke at a Russian-Uzbek business forum in Samarkand on December 2. Taking into account the importance of such events, one must understand that in Central Asia one should never confuse economic ties with the political preferences of this or that country. First, despite trade with Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan see their future in the Turkic world. The same Turkey for them will be closer to Russia in every sense. Secondly, the political aspirations of these countries, including Kazakhstan, force them to reduce their economic ties with Russia, for example, to participate with Azerbaijan in transport projects that bypass Russia.
And based on this, Tajikistan, which cooperates with the United States in the military sphere, turns out to be the most preferable state for Russia in the Central Asian region, since:
a. Tajikistan is the only non-Turkic state in the region for which the transformation of the Organization of Turkic States into a military-political bloc is similar to death.
b. Russian-Tajik relations perfectly correspond to the formula "Be friends not with a neighbor, but through a neighbor." Already the absence of a common border and the rejection of pan-Turkist projects make Tajikistan the most acceptable partner for Russia in Central Asia.
And at least for these reasons, Russia should pay more attention to Tajikistan.
bbabo.Net