How will Moscow respond to the deployment of Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine?

Ukraine (, - The announced consultations between the administration of President Joe Biden and the US Department of Defense on the provision of advanced versions of the Patriot air defense system to the Armed Forces of Ukraine give particular urgency to the issue of the multiple expansion of the production of strategic missiles 3M14T "Caliber-NK", Kh-101, as well as tactical medium-range cruise missiles X-50 (X-SD).

This need is due to the fact that the modifications of the Patriot PAC-3MSE and Patriot PAC-2 GEM-T air defense systems planned and already being prepared for deployment on the territory of Ukraine have an expanded anti-missile potential in comparison with the regular version of the PAC-2. Thus, the ERINT and MIM-104F PAC-3MSE anti-missiles used in the PAC-3 / MSE ammunition are equipped with anti-jamming active radar homing heads (GOS) of the millimeter Ka-band and multi-tiered gas-dynamic belts of transverse control engines.

These elements provide the ERINT and MIM-104F missile interceptors with the implementation of ultra-high-precision guidance and available overloads of the order of 65 units. (with lightning-fast transverse throws on the trajectory), which allows you to intercept aerodynamic and ballistic targets that carry out anti-aircraft maneuvers with 30G overloads using the hit-to-kill method. As a result, the ERINT and MIM-104F PAC-3MSE missiles are quite capable of counteracting the 9M723-1 Iskander-M operational-tactical quasi-ballistic missiles in the terminal sections of the trajectories, when the speed of the latter decreases from 6–5 M to 3.7–2.7 M with anti-aircraft maneuvers with overloads 25-27G.

The interception probability in this case will be of the order of 0.5-0.7, which is noticeably greater than that of the AIM-120B / C-7 missiles of the NASAMS systems (equipped only with aerodynamic rudders with an interception probability of 0.2-0.4) and missiles IRIS-T SLM (with a deflectable thrust vector and an interception efficiency of the order of 0.4-0.6).

As for the improved MIM-104E GEM-T interceptor missiles with more highly sensitive fuses and regular aerodynamic rudders, these anti-missiles will be able to very effectively counteract the low-maneuverable tactical ballistic missiles of the Fateh-110 and Fateh-313 families. Optimized warhead initiation distances and the sector of dispersion of warhead fragments of MIM-104E anti-aircraft missiles significantly increase the likelihood of detonation of warheads of intercepted Fateh-110/313 ballistic missiles. Also, these missiles will be able to repel attacks by Kh-31PD and Kh-58U anti-radar missiles and Kh-32 multi-purpose cruise missiles.

Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the MIM-104E missile defense system in intercepting the 9M723-1 Iskander-M quasi-ballistic missiles will leave much to be desired, demonstrating a hit probability of the order of 0.2-0.35. After all, the aerodynamic control system provides these anti-aircraft missiles with disposable overloads of no more than 30 units. This parameter allows you to destroy air objects with overloads of no more than 12-15G.

Meanwhile, the potential of the Patriot PAC-3MSE and Patriot PAC-2 GEM-T deployed in the Kyiv, Lvov and Odessa regions of the Nezalezhnaya air defense system is still allowed to be completely neutralized by the 3M14T Kalibr-PL / NK and Kh-101 sea- and air-based strategic cruise missiles , as well as tactical long-range KR X-50, which are analogues of the American KR AGM-158B JASSM-ER.

Possessing low-altitude flight profiles (in the altitude range of 50-20 m), providing concealment behind the radio horizon screen, as well as natural and artificial terrain objects (including hills, hills and high-rise urban buildings) from AN / MPQ-53 / divisional illumination / target designation radars 65, all of the above CRs will provide an extremely limited window of time for Patriot operators to detect, set up trails and intercept the latter. Appearing from behind the folds of the terrain, the "Caliber", X-101 and X-50 will hide behind terrain objects in the opposite direction in just a few seconds.

The semi-active radar seeker illumination of the MIM-104E GEM-T anti-aircraft missiles will fail at the moment of loss of direct radio visibility between the cruise missiles and the AN / MPQ-53/65 illumination / guidance radar. Interception can only be continued if the MIM-104F PAC-3MSE interceptors with active RGSNs are used, which do not need continuous illumination by means of MPQ-53/65.Meanwhile, it is well known that in the modes of operation of the phase shifters of the AN / MPQ-53 multifunctional radars, the mode of the lower beam of the radiation pattern is very crudely implemented. As a result, the lower edge of the radiation pattern has an elevation angle of 1 degree, while, for example, domestic Gamma-S1 and VVO 96L6 radars have a negative elevation angle (up to -3 degrees). In this regard, the MPQ-53/65 family of radars are not capable of effectively processing low-altitude targets with flight altitudes of less than 50 m, which was demonstrated by Iranian kamikaze UAVs and cruise missiles during attacks on oil refining infrastructure in Saudi Arabia several years earlier.

A similar result will take place in the course of an attempt to repel attacks by "Caliber" and X-101.

The enemy can partially solve this problem only through the use of British SeaKing AEW Mk.7 AWACS helicopters, which will issue target designation on the detected low-altitude X-101 and Caliber missiles to the Patriot PAC-3MSE combat control points. But so far, no one plans to provide these machines to the Kyiv regime.

As for the E-3C / G Sentry AWACS aircraft of the AWACS system, loitering in the airspace of Poland and Romania will not provide the AN / APY-2 radars with the ability to detect our cruise missiles with an RCS of 0.1 square meters. m above the southern, eastern and central regions of Ukraine. Detection and targeting of our missiles can only be during strikes on Western Ukraine, when a reduction in range will provide the APY-2 "airborne radars" with the ability to find direction finding small-sized AOS.

Meanwhile, in strikes against strategically important targets in Western Ukraine, the Russian Aerospace Forces can use Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, whose cruising speed of Mach 7-8 will significantly reduce the likelihood of interception even with MIM-104F PAC-3MSE missiles.

How will Moscow respond to the deployment of Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine?