Ukraine (bbabo.net), - Despite the unprecedented drop in supplies, there are at least 4 scenarios for gas exports from Russia to the European Union in the near future. French energy expert Thierry Bros writes about this article for Natural Gas World.
“2022 has been an exceptional year for the gas market, as Russian pipeline gas supplies to the EU fell by 55%. There will be no return to business as usual, but it would be a mistake to assume that the same trend will continue in 2023,” writes Thierry Bros.
According to an energy expert, there are 4 global scenarios for gas exports from Russia to the EU.
Scenario #1: Until the end of the military conflict in Ukraine, the Kremlin will have the opportunity to play the card of uncertainty. It can be expected that in this case, the supply volumes will remain at the level of 0.9 billion cubic meters per month (if only the Turkish Stream works, since Russia is not eager to completely cut Europe off from gas) to 4.5 billion cubic meters (if consider the Turkish Stream and the contracted transit through the Ukrainian GTS).
“Such uncertainty for Europe from Russia will cost up to 3.6 billion cubic meters per month, or 43 billion cubic meters per year. And this is more than 10% of the EU's needs, or 17% of the EU's gas storage volumes, ”the expert cites the calculations.
Scenario No. 2. In case of a frozen conflict (truce) without a peace agreement and without international recognition of the borders, it is very likely that there will be no new gas agreement with Russia.
“In this case, only a few selected EU countries will continue to receive Russian gas through the Turkish Stream after 2025,” predicts Thierry Bros.
Scenario No. 3. If there are peace negotiations and they end in success, then the military conflict could end. In this case, additional gas supplies via the Ukrainian GTS (as a priority over the Turkish Stream) will be undesirable in Europe until all contentious issues are resolved.
Scenario No. 4. In the event of a "peace settlement", Europe could ask Russia to financially participate in the restoration of Ukraine. Russian property, and in particular GTS, which is not easy to redirect, could act as a financial asset in an expanded peace agreement.
There are already examples in history of oil supplies, despite the embargo or sanctions regime. The program for Iraq "Oil for food" can be taken as the basis for the agreement "Supplies of Russian gas in exchange for the restoration of Ukraine." A peace agreement could fix what volumes of gas from the Russian Federation Europe could buy based on a formula that determines the cost and income for Russia and the “gas rent” for Ukraine.
“In order to prevent Russia from interfering in the gas market, an ad-hoc formula should be established for gas (that is, a special price for gas from the Russian Federation. - Ed.),” suggests French energy expert Thierry Bros.
Of course, all the proposed scenarios can be called biased (for example, a very transparent allusion to the sad fate of Saddam Hussein, who was economically strangled precisely by the Oil for Food program), but they give an idea of what trends are circulating in the Western media today about gas supplies from Russia to the EU.
In any case, it is important that the French expert connects all possible scenarios of "gas" relations between Russia and the EU with the outcome of the military conflict on the territory of Ukraine.
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