Ethiopia is the most populous landlocked country in the world. The country's authorities are constantly searching for ways to access maritime trade routes and diversify logistics routes. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took up this ambitious task.

Last week, the head of government announced a deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, an unrecognized breakaway state from Somalia.

According to it, Addis Ababa will lease 12 miles of maritime territory in the Berbera port area. In exchange, Ethiopia will recognize the independence of the breakaway part of Somalia and give up a stake in the country's largest airline, Ethiopia Airlines. Thus, Ethiopia will become the first country to recognize the sovereignty of Somaliland.

The deal immediately caused discontent in Somalia: the country's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a document symbolically annulling the agreement and calling it “an open interference in the sovereignty, freedom and unity of Somalia.”

*** Background ***

In ancient times, all the treasures of Rome and India passed through the ports of the Ethiopian kingdom. Byzantine historians in the 6th century claimed that this country had a huge fleet of wooden boats. The ancient Greeks called the southern part of the Atlantic Ocean the Ethiopian Sea.

However, modern Ethiopia, still a major power in the Horn of Africa, is landlocked. In the 20th century, the country occupied Eritrea and used its port of Assab for several decades. But in 1993, Eritrea seceded, and Addis Ababa was left with a meager river fleet and a dream of former maritime greatness.

Ethiopia now has to lease Djibouti's harbors for $1.5 billion a year.

Firstly, this is a huge amount for a country in which, according to the UN, a fifth of the population depends on food aid. Ethiopia's national debt is $63 billion and will only grow, and its external debt has reached $28 billion. In November 2023, the state was unable to pay interest to Eurobond holders and declared default. The country needs $20 billion to rebuild after the civil war.

Secondly, the concentration on the port of Djibouti puts Ethiopia in a dependent position and encourages diversification of maritime logistics. The country's annual cargo traffic through the port in Djibouti reaches more than 4.8 million tons and accounts for 83% of the total cargo traffic of the transport hub, reports the Sudan Tribune.

“Ethiopia needs access to the sea. They cannot afford to leave things as they are now. This is a very strong state militarily and economically. ...The Red Sea, with its potential for economic empowerment, places Ethiopia at the intersection of regional trade dynamics, promoting self-reliance and strengthening the country's economic resilience,” Noah, former vice-chancellor of CCA University in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, told Anadolu Turkey.

Ethiopian authorities are looking for an opportunity to break through the historical geographic blockade. The task has been taken on by the ambitious Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose popularity is waning due to the civil war in the Tigray region and economic problems.

A part of Somaliland, a former British colony, actually, but not formally, fell away from the neighboring state of Somalia 30 years ago. Addis Ababa decided to use the services of this unrecognized state to free itself from the sea trap.

Last week, Abiy Ahmed announced that Ethiopia and Somaliland had entered into a memorandum of understanding. The country received 12 miles of maritime territory from Somaliland for a 50-year lease in the Berbera port area. In exchange, Ethiopia could recognize the independence of the breakaway part of Somalia and give a stake in the country's largest airline to Ethiopia Airlines.

The deal immediately sparked outrage in Somalia, which recalled its ambassador to Addis Ababa. Protests began in Mogadishu. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a document symbolically canceling the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which is an internationally recognized territory of Somalia.

Despite the fact that Mogadishu is unable to influence its former region, the territorial integrity of Somalia is supported by the United States, the EU, Great Britain, the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Countries. They called on Ethiopia to refrain from further actions to gain access to the sea.

There is a risk that Ethiopia will seek a military solution, the Robert Lansing Institute said in a report, even though Abiy Ahmed won a Nobel Prize for brokering peace with Eritrea and the country's troops have fought alongside the Ethiopians in Tigray.

“Any potential forceful approach to securing access to ports in a neighboring country could derail Ethiopia's ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to obtain billions of dollars in loans to rebuild the country after the war.

However, local businessmen claim that Abiy told them that the option of using military force remains on the table if negotiations on securing access to ports with neighboring countries fail,” according to the institute’s experts.

Ethiopia already struck a deal with Somaliland and Emirati port operator DP World in 2018. Then Addis Ababa acquired a 19% stake in the port of Berbera in Somaliland, writes The Economist. Mogadishu opposed this agreement, which is why the deal was canceled four years later.

bbabo.Net