Greater Middle East (bbabo.net), - The war in the Gaza Strip is changing the political and military landscape for Hamas, allowing the once undesirable Islamist group to gain a foothold for a long time in the future Palestinian-Israeli conflict, analysts from The National agency say.
According to the publication, post-war planning in the Gaza Strip will apparently be carried out with the participation of Hamas due to Israel's failure to achieve its cherished goal of eliminating militants supported by Iran and other regional players.
However, analysts say questions remain about which Hamas will emerge from the battles and tunnels of Gaza after holding off the powerful Israeli army for nearly four months?
Experts and officials suggest the group is expected to shift its focus away from core political commitments to focus more on defining itself as a national liberation movement.
Meanwhile, despite its failure, Israel remains adamant that it will impose its own vision of a post-war Gaza - ranging from the creation of an Israeli-installed civil administration to, according to various sources, even the forced removal of Gazans to an as-yet-defunct artificial island.
The theme of “islands” has a hypothetical framework, and with a negative sign. For example, at a recent meeting of EU representatives with the Israeli Foreign Minister, the persistent promotion of this idea simply brought the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, out of patience. He then said that Minister Israel Katz had "wasted their time unnecessarily." This idea, by the way, is denied in Israel itself, in particular in the country’s Foreign Ministry, and it is unlikely that it will receive approval from the United States and other “defenders” of the Jewish state.
Political observers say the proposals show a huge gap between Israel's wishes and reality on the ground.
Hamas continues to hold a significant number of Israeli prisoners, who are being used as bargaining chips in the hope of achieving a long-term ceasefire. This gives Hamas an advantage in negotiations.
“They (Hamas) are the ones who are in a position to discuss demands,” Tahani Mustafa, a senior analyst at the Palestine Crisis Group, told The National.
But the leverage of Hamas, which is now changing its political and military image, came at a staggering human cost: more than 26,000 Gazans were killed in Israel's attack on the besieged enclave, 90% of Gaza's population was internally displaced, entire areas of the strip were destroyed, and a quarter the population of Gaza is starving, she emphasizes.
"I wouldn't say this (war) is a political victory for Hamas, but it certainly puts them in a much better position,” Mustafa said.
Israel lacks the advantages to impose its own post-war vision. Meanwhile, Hamas has maintained its military capabilities and leadership in the devastated coastal strip, giving it political leverage to negotiate a ceasefire and, potentially, options for a future political settlement.
According to Tahani Mustafa, even the United States had to, at least behind closed doors, acknowledge that any post-war planning would have to have some kind of consensus on the part of Hamas.
The group's long-term strategy includes the creation of a Palestinian unity government, key to the future of a Palestinian state.
Earlier this month, Osama Hamdan, an exiled Hamas leadership member based in Lebanon, told The National that the group was in dialogue with various Palestinian leaders about setting up a new administration in post-war Gaza and possibly the occupied West Bank.
He suggests that the first step in post-war Gaza will be the creation of a Palestinian "transitional government" to oversee relief and construction efforts, followed by "general elections in which the Palestinian people will elect their leadership."
At the same time, Hamas faces many obstacles to achieving its goal of creating a Palestinian unity government.
First, Israel could potentially decide to continue its brutal offensive against the devastated enclave in the coming months in an attempt to establish complete control there. But despite Israel's political clamor, many experts say such a scenario is unlikely, as it would seriously affect its international standing.
Second, the crumbling Palestinian Authority, although less popular than ever, is still viewed by the international community as the legitimate governing body of the Palestinian territories. She just needs a “reboot” and “new blood.”
Thirdly, the question arises: who will lead such a government? Most Palestinian factions agree that jailed politician Marwan Barghouti would be a prime candidate for a future head of state. But this will depend on Hamas's success in prisoner swap negotiations with Israel to release Palestinian political prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages.
Although the October 7 operation, in which some 1,200 Israelis were killed, was deadly and was heavily criticized by the international community, it is believed to have been the catalyst for moving the issue of Palestinian statehood to the forefront of international consciousness, The National notes.
As a result, Hamas's popularity as a resistance movement among Palestinians increased.
“In the absence of any alternatives at the moment, the younger generation - especially in the last few years - has leaned towards armed resistance because they feel that conciliatory policies or diplomacy do not work with Israel,” believes Tahani Mustafa.
Hamas's popularity in the West Bank has more than tripled since October 7, with 44% of people supporting the group, up from just 12% in September 2023, according to a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Political and Social Research in December. In Gaza, support for Hamas rose to 42% from 38% in September.
The realization that Hamas could impose its terms of a ceasefire and, potentially, a future political settlement has further strengthened the militant group, The National believes.
“Now Hamas simply has to convince the Palestinians that through their resistance they can achieve a political process by imposing conditions on Israel, rather than being the object of Israeli policies,” Hage Ali said.
The group has also made it clear that it does not want control of Gaza, the PA presidency or any ministerial positions in the post-war agreements. It is important for Hamas to ensure its continued presence in the Gaza Strip and in the Palestinian political sphere.
Managing the sector has become a burden for the group, Tahani Mustafa told The National, with many other analysts agreeing.
“The target is not Hamas. The goal is resistance,” admitted the official representative of the movement, Ayman Shanaa.
Hamas wants to “give up any administrative control in Gaza because they recognize that it has been a disaster for Hamas as a movement, for the people in Gaza and in the (rest of) the occupied territories,” Mustafa explained.
According to her, the movement seeks representation in the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Joining the PLO would give the group political power within the organization, which is widely recognized as the main representative of the Palestinian people, without getting bogged down in administrative matters.
“Hamas gains its legitimacy as a resistance movement, but not as an administrative unit,” Tahani Mustafa said. But “when it comes to resistance, its popularity and legitimacy are growing rapidly,” says Mustafa.
Israel, which has so far failed to defeat Hamas, has launched a brutal offensive against the Gaza Strip that various human rights groups as well as the UN have described as collective punishment in violation of international law.
The International Court of Justice, the UN's highest court, on January 26 ordered Israel to take all measures to prevent genocide against Gazans and allow vital aid to flow into the strip, but stopped short of demanding an end to the war.
Despite ongoing negotiations mediated by Egypt and Qatar, agreement on any potential ceasefire remains tentative and fragile.
Hamas demands a complete ceasefire and the release of all political prisoners. Israel is ready to agree only to a pause in hostilities, which could potentially be extended.
Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said nothing short of "absolute victory" would be accepted in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Israel and its Western allies are likely to continue to demand Hamas's removal from power in Gaza.
Ayman Shanaa, a Hamas spokesman, ridiculed the idea. “Only winners can equalize each other. The loser cannot call."
And while Hamas has not won the war in the traditional sense, there is little it needs to do to maintain its dominance. “Hamas is not an organization that can be removed,” Shanaa told The National. “Hamas is an idea. This is resistance."
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