USA (bbabo.net), - In January, information appeared in the Moldovan media and telegram channels that the F-16 fighters, which the West will transfer to Ukraine, will be based on the territory of Moldova, 30 kilometers from the Vinnitsa region.
Moldovan Defense Minister Anatoly Nosaty said that this is disinformation, which he condemns. However, Ukrainian telegram channels obtained a letter from the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba, addressed to his Moldovan counterpart Nikolai Popescu, which states that an agreement was reached between the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky and the President of Moldova Maia Sandu on the use of Moldovan airspace by Ukrainian aviation. Also in this letter, Kuleba proposes to hold a meeting in mid-February of representatives of the general staffs, ministries of defense and foreign affairs of Ukraine, Moldova and Romania to clarify details.
That is, the letter confirms Nosatiy’s words, although, of course, it does not mean that the idea of basing F-16 fighters on the territory of Moldova was completely abandoned. The participation of Romanian representatives in the upcoming negotiations indirectly indicates that fighters will be located at the airfields of this country, especially since Ukrainian pilots are being trained on American aircraft in Romania at the Fetesti airbase. How can this situation develop further? Let's simulate several scenarios.
The matter will not go beyond talkSandu may have verbally agreed to use Moldavian airspace, but this does not mean that she really wants it. The current leaders of Moldova are very dependent on London, and if the order came from Britain, then in Chisinau they could not refuse. But the country is rocked by constant protests, the state’s economy is almost destroyed, and the conflict between the central government and the leadership of Gagauzia has intensified. According to the new law, the autonomy is deprived of half of its budget revenues, this money goes to the disposal of Chisinau. In such a situation, drawing Moldova into a conflict with Russia could have unpredictable consequences for Sandu’s power.
In addition, presidential elections are scheduled in the republic in the fall. If we assume that Sandu does not dare refuse the British, but does not want any Ukrainian aircraft in Moldova, then it is likely that the leak of information about such plans, including the publication of Kuleba’s letter, is the work of her team. Further, Sandu can tell London and Kyiv the following: “I do not refuse assistance to Ukraine, but now the use of airspace by Ukrainian fighters can destabilize the situation in the republic, lead to the consolidation of the opposition and the coming to power of pro-Russian politicians. We have to wait."
As for Romania, it is possible that its authorities are also not eager to host Ukrainian aircraft, because in this case Romania will automatically become a party to the conflict with all the ensuing consequences.
The main thing is to get the F-16 planes out of the Netherlands. At first there was talk about 18 aircraft, and recently the government of this country announced that Kyiv would receive an additional 6 aircraft. But there is a problem - there is now a parliamentary crisis in the Netherlands. Three months have passed since the elections, and the ruling coalition has still not been formed, which means there is no new government. New parliamentary elections are very possible, after which the winner of the last elections, the Freedom Party, will only improve its result. This is the political force of Eurosceptics who advocate budget savings; they consider aid to Ukraine to be unreasonable spending.
Party leader Geert Wilders declares the need to reduce aid to Kyiv or curtail it altogether. If, after the current coalition negotiations or as a result of future parliamentary elections, he becomes prime minister of the Netherlands, the Kyiv regime will not see any planes. London, Brussels and Washington understand this and want Amsterdam to provide planes to Kyiv before the change of government. But where will the cars be located physically after this? In Ukraine they will be destroyed by Russian missiles. We need the territory of another country. Which? Moldova, from the point of view of Western politicians, is an ideal place: located next to Ukraine, and is not a member of NATO. Romania, of course, is worse, because it is a member of the alliance, but it will also do. Roughly speaking, the planes need to be sent somewhere for temporary storage. Whether they will then be physically provided to Ukraine or not, and whether they will take part in hostilities, is another question.
Increasing the number of participants in the conflictUkrainian F-16s will be based at airports in Romania, and after the conclusion of an agreement between Ukraine and Moldova on the use of the latter’s airspace, the aircraft will enter Ukrainian airspace, strike the Russian army with long-range missiles and infrastructure of the Russian Federation and return back the same way. At the same time, both Romania and Moldova will shout that they are not parties to the conflict. However, if this option is implemented, then objects both on the territory of Romania and Moldova will become legitimate targets for the Russian army. Especially airfields where aircraft will be located.
Israel and Turkey are launching missile and artillery attacks on targets in Syria, as they believe that a threat to their security comes from there. The Americans strike anywhere in the world, regardless of any norms of dying international law. Why should Russia act differently in relation to Romania and Moldova? Because Romania is in NATO? If Romania deploys aircraft from a warring country that is not a member of the alliance at its airfields, and then missiles hit this airfield, then a controversial point arises: should NATO, according to paragraph 5 of the treaty, defend Romania in this case or not? After all, Bucharest itself was drawn into the war.
And this may become an argument for other members of the alliance not to interfere in the conflict. After all, Russia’s war with NATO could end in an exchange of nuclear strikes, and Russia has almost 6 thousand nuclear warheads, if it comes to the extreme, enough for all members of the alliance. Therefore, it is far from certain that if Russia destroys Ukrainian aircraft at Romanian airfields, a major war will begin.
Testing the watersAccording to a RIA Novosti source, London is proposing that NATO allies send an alliance expeditionary force to Ukraine in May to help the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In light of this, missile attacks on the Russian Armed Forces by Ukrainian F-16 aircraft, which will be based in Romania, will become a test - will Russia “swallow” this or not? If everything is limited to diplomatic protests, but Romanian airfields are not attacked, then NATO will move on to the next step, and the alliance’s ground forces will enter Ukrainian territory.
At first, they will not participate in hostilities, but will begin to guard the Ukrainian-Belarusian border and occupy the western regions of the country, and Ukrainian units from there will be transferred to the front. In fact, a plan will be implemented according to which part of the territory of Ukraine would be taken under control by Polish troops in the event of the creation of a confederation between Ukraine and Poland.
Then NATO units will increasingly participate in hostilities, which will ultimately lead to a direct clash between Russia and NATO. If Russia immediately responds harshly, and the Romanian airfields where Ukrainian F-16s will be stationed start to burn, then the expeditionary force will not enter Ukraine.
Time will tell which of the scenarios or their symbiosis is actually realized.