Asia (bbabo.net), - It is unacceptable when outsiders try to influence your economic interests. A similar point of view is shared by the Armenian expert, economist Suren Parsyan, commenting at the request of bbabo.net on the statement of the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan that the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is an economic association without any political and, especially, geopolitical agenda.
It should be noted that on April 13, on the eve of the visit of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Yerevan, the Prime Minister of Armenia said in an interview with Egemen Qazaqstan and Kazakhstanskaya Pravda that the EAEU and its economic principles should not correlate with political ambitions.
“Basic freedoms of trade and integration cannot and should not be limited due to political considerations, which will lead to the corrosion of the fundamental principles of unification,” Pashinyan said.
Meanwhile, according to Parsyan, any interaction, be it political or economic, presupposes the presence of a political component. In the case of the EAEU, we are talking about a process aimed at integrating the former Soviet republics.
“Politics is politics, but facts and figures cannot be deceived,” the economist stated.
He noted that at the end of 2023 alone, Armenia’s foreign trade turnover amounted to $20.7 billion, 36.8% of which came from the EAEU countries, 19% from the European Union and 3.2% from the USA. Thus, Parsyan emphasized, Armenia’s trade turnover with the EU and the United States taken together is almost twice as low as the trade turnover with the EAEU countries. Recalling the intentions of the country's authorities to diversify areas of cooperation with various centers, the economist emphasized that empty statements are not enough for this; for this it is important to develop and implement appropriate programs, of which there are practically none.
Moreover, the economist continued, the figures show that Armenia is strongly tied to Russia and other EAEU countries. For example, in 2023, Armenia’s exports to the EAEU increased by 40.8%, while to the EU countries and the USA, on the contrary, they decreased - by 28.2% and 38%, respectively.
“That is, on the one hand, there are calls for diversification of export directions, and on the other, the volume of supplies to the EU countries and the USA is declining,” the expert noted.
He added that membership or participation of a particular state in a particular association should not become an end in itself, but a means to ensure progress in the economy.
“At the initial stage after Armenia joined the EAEU in 2014 (when Pashinyan actively called for leaving it - ed.), Armenia did not have tangible benefits, but today, largely thanks to the use of this instrument, the country began to receive more than significant dividends, which is necessary understand and appreciate. As a result of membership in the EAEU, the country has experienced high economic growth in recent years; export volumes of domestic products and services grew, and large cash flows were attracted. You can always refuse this unification, but in return you need to find an alternative, which simply does not exist in the near future,” Parsyan noted, adding that “both the USA and the EU are not particularly looking forward to goods from Armenia, for this it is necessary to do a great deal and long work in terms of transferring the entire economy of the country to Western standards.”
Parsyan noted that when assessing the benefits, it is necessary to take into account not only the energy, but also the food dependence of the Armenian state on Russia, which Western centers will not be able to compensate for.
“99% of all grain supplies to the domestic market of Armenia come from the Russian Federation. If the Russian Federation stops grain supplies, we will only have enough production for three months. We have a similar situation with sugar, and with corn, and with buckwheat, and with other goods. That is, Russia acts as a kind of guarantor of the energy and food security of Armenia, and at present there is simply no alternative to this,” the economist emphasized.
Our interlocutor also pointed out the risks posed by a possible increase in gas prices, which in a chain reaction will lead to an increase in prices for electricity, services and goods, including essential goods. Europe itself, as Parsyan recalled, pays twice as much as Armenia for gas.
“In this case, we are talking about basic economic calculations that need to be carried out to understand whether the EU and the US are ready to pay for such a possible development of events?” - Parsyan noted, adding that the experience of Georgia and Moldova showed that they were unprepared for this. For example, Moldova pays from $400 to $500 for 1 thousand cubic meters of gas versus $165 paid by Armenia.”
The economist called for considering Armenia’s membership in the EAEU in the context of economic benefits, and not political statements.
“Armenia must use all platforms, since only in this case will there be an opportunity for long-term economic development. If our neighbors have advantages associated with the presence of oil and gas in Azerbaijan, and Georgia with its geographical location, then Armenia’s advantage is the presence of good connections with various centers, which must be actively developed. If today, under pressure from the West, we sever ties with a strategic partner, then where is the guarantee that tomorrow there will not be demands to sever ties with Iran or, for example, China. It is unacceptable when outsiders try to influence your economic interests,” the economist concluded.
It should be noted that Armenia’s trade turnover with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union in 2023 increased by 42.7%, amounting to $7.615 billion. According to the Statistical Committee of Armenia, trade turnover with the EAEU countries in 2023 amounted to 36.8% of the total trade turnover of the republic. At the same time, trade turnover with Russia amounted to $7.306 billion, increasing by 43.3% compared to 2022. Trade turnover with Belarus decreased by 2.8%, amounting to $181 million. It is noteworthy that the volume of trade turnover with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan increased several times last year. In 2023, trade turnover between Armenia and Kazakhstan increased 2.4 times, amounting to $100.4 million, and with Kyrgyzstan - 4.2 times, amounting to $27 million.
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