The RSPP Commission on Communications and IT has calculated that "in the current economic conditions" the reserves of equipment of telecom operators will last for six months, and failures in their work may begin in the summer. To support companies, the commission proposes to reduce fees for the radio spectrum by 50%, zero the property tax rate and exempt the income of industry employees from taxes.
However, the Ministry of Digital Development sees no reason for failures in the networks and says that their work depends not only on state support.
RSPP for Communications and IT includes representatives of MTS, MegaFon, VimpelCom, ER-Telecom, GS Group, Russian Railways and other companies. The commission prepared a document “On measures to ensure the development of the communications and information and communication technologies industry in the face of external sanctions pressure” following the results of the commission’s meeting on March 21, now it is planned to be sent to the government.
The authors of the document emphasize that the cost of telecom equipment has already increased by 40% due to the departure of Western vendors and the depreciation of the ruble. They expect further growth of 80%.
As a result, the reserves of equipment of telecom operators to ensure the operability of the infrastructure will be enough for four to six months. This means that the risk of accidents and disruption of the stability of the network will increase from July-August.
This may also apply to the technological communication networks of railway transport and the fuel and energy complex. The Commission notes that "the only way to keep the infrastructure working is to curtail all development plans and use previously purchased equipment solely to maintain the stability of the network."
The RSPP predicts that the capital expenditures of the largest telecom operators will grow from 390 billion rubles. in 2021 to 450 billion rubles. in 2022 even with the reduction of investment programs. And if current trends continue within six months, the industry may lose up to 30% of highly qualified specialists. By the end of 2022, they will have to optimize the state by 15-20%.
Thus, the RSPP proposes to impose a moratorium on contributions to the fund of universal communication services for 2022, reduce fees for the radio frequency spectrum by 50%, zero the property tax rate, reduce the rate of insurance premiums and exempt the income of employees in the communications industry from taxation.
However, the Ministry of Digital Development does not see the preconditions for failures in communication networks: “Business receives whole packages of support measures from the state. It is important to understand that the performance of a business depends not only on preferences from the state, but also on the decisions of the enterprises themselves.”
MegaFon also notes that the proposed measures will make a significant contribution to ensuring the uninterrupted operation of communication networks. Rostelecom emphasizes that in order to continue digitalization, a stable operation of the communications infrastructure is needed, therefore state support measures are important for the entire industry.
MForum Analytics analyst Alexei Boyko believes that the problems mentioned are inevitable: "The scale of the problems will depend on the stock of equipment." According to him, failures can be manifested by a deterioration in the quality of services, for example, a decrease in available average data transfer rates or a temporary denial of communication, up to a situation when the user's device stops catching the network. As an option to keep networks up and running, operators can partially dismantle already deployed equipment and use it to repair or expand networks where needed.
Earlier, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, together with relevant departments, has already proposed measures to support telecoms and telecom operators. They include concessional lending, a reduction in the income tax rate, the suspension of the implementation of the Yarovaya Law for a year, a delay in the launch of LTE BS in small towns and federal highways, and the possibility of indexing communication tariffs for users.
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