Valentin Makarov, president of the Russoft Software Developers Association, believes that within 8-10 months, from a third to a half of IT specialists who have now left the country can return to Russia. He estimates the number of those who left in February-March at 18-20 thousand people.
Makarov says that mainly employees of the development centers of foreign companies who have decided to close them in Russia, as well as those whose employers were export-oriented, have gone abroad. In addition to them, freelancers left the country.
According to the president of the InfoWatch group of companies, Natalia Kasperskaya, most of those who left continue to work remotely for their companies, and after some time they may return.
Makarov claims that leaving IT specialists were frightened by the prospect of being drafted into the army. He is confident that they will begin to return when it becomes clear that there will be no mobilization in the Russian Federation, and also as prices rise and Russophobia in other countries.
Kasperskaya also agrees with Makarov, who believes that, as a rule, young people leave because of a possible draft into the army or a change in the situation.
However, Svetlana Gatsakova, director of the corporate information systems department at ALP Group, believes that some of those who left will try to find application for their knowledge abroad. In her opinion, their return depends on whether the Russian Federation can interest analysts, architects, programmers and managers.
But so far, the demand for a change of residence for IT specialists is extremely high, said Ekaterina Lyamina, head of the IT recruitment group at Unity. If in the first half of February 5–10% of candidates needed to move from the Russian Federation, now 80% of candidates call relocation and foreign exchange wages as requirements for the employer.
According to Lyamina, Russian specialists are still highly rated in the West, but appointing them to serious positions is a risky move that can cause mixed feelings among investors and problems within international teams.
Kaspersky believes that now many unnecessary or duplicating digitalization programs can be curtailed. Thus, subsidiaries and large IT departments created at the peak of the popularity of digitalization will be greatly reduced or completely eliminated. Kaspersky says that recruiters have already noticed a 7-10% increase in the number of offers from junior developers, and “middle peasants”, that is, developers with 3-5 years of experience, will enter the market after them.
According to RAEC estimates, as part of the "second wave" of emigration of IT specialists in April, from 70 to 100 thousand people can leave Russia, and in the first wave in March 50-70 thousand people have already left.
HeadHunter has not yet recorded mass layoffs of developers after moving to other countries.
In light of reports of possible restrictions on the emigration of IT specialists, the Ministry of Digital Development stated that it was categorically against any movement bans.
The agency has already developed new measures to support the IT industry. So, IT-specialists will be offered a deferment from the army and preferential mortgages.
bbabo.Net