Roscosmos, citing data from the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), said that the collision of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth is unlikely. The dangerous approach of another potentially threatening asteroid to the planet, 2021 UL17, is expected before the end of this century.
As noted in Roscosmos, they clarified the parameters of the orbital motion of Apophis, and it turned out that the probability of a collision is "very, very small."
In addition, there have been reports of the discovery of a new asteroid 2021 UL17, approaching the Earth. According to preliminary calculations, the dangerous approach will take place on April 5, 2095, and the current probability of a collision is 0.02%.
Earlier, experts from the All-Russian Research Institute for Civil Defense and Emergencies (VNII GOChS, part of the Ministry of Emergency Situations) warned that in the spring of 2029 the asteroid Apophis, which has a diameter of almost 400 m and weighs about 30 million tons, would approach the Earth at a dangerous distance. Apophis will pass approximately 37.6 thousand km from the Earth. The VNII GOChS predicted that the strength of an earthquake within a radius of 10 kilometers from the place of the asteroid's fall could reach 6.5 points on the Richter scale, and the wind speed would be at least 790 meters per second.
Boris Shustov, director of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in 2010 that the likelihood of a collision of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth is very small, but in the event of such an outcome, a region the size of a European country would be erased from the face of the planet, and the overall energy of the explosion would be comparable to the detonation of all nuclear weapons in mankind. weapons.
Initially, the researchers did predict the risk of an asteroid colliding with Earth in 2029, but it was later ruled out later, as was the potential collision risk associated with another encounter in 2036. The next dangerous approach of Apophis with the Earth was predicted in 2068. But when on March 5, 2021, the asteroid flew far around the Earth, astronomers used powerful radar instruments to pinpoint its orbit. This allowed them to eliminate any risk of collision of a space object with our planet in 2068 and later. "A collision in 2068 is no longer possible and our calculations show no risk of collision for at least the next 100 years," said Davide Farnokchia of NASA's Center for Near Earth Objects (CNEOS).
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