Russia (bbabo.net), - UC Davis researchers used computer simulations to predict and analyze 100,000 futures in the context of climate change. Turns out it's not that bright.

Public perceptions of climate change, the effectiveness of technologies and measures to combat warming, and the response of politicians to public pressure are important factors in determining the extent of climate change in the 21st century. Scientists have tried to identify variables in the climate-social system that could influence climate change this century. The results are published in the journal Nature.

It is noted that despite the efforts of some countries where the growth of emissions has slowed down, global figures continue to grow, and commitments under the Paris Agreement are insufficient. On the other hand, practice shows that the pace of production can fall, and people can become completely carried away by environmentally friendly equipment, for example, electric vehicles. Most forecasts agree that in 100 years the temperature on the planet will rise by 2-3 degrees, although the goal of the Paris Agreement is 1.5 degrees.

The results show that the perceptions of people and social groups, improvements in mitigation technologies over time, and the response of political institutions are key drivers of future emissions, even more so than individual actions. Accounting and working with all indicators will lead to a rapid reduction in emissions. More than 90 percent of the simulations showed that humanity is on track to reduce the rate of global temperature increase, despite the fact that the boundaries of the acceptable range have been increased.

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