The index of food prices in the world increased by more than a quarter last year, the UN calculated. Records were beaten by sugar, vegetable oil, milk. Industry experts interviewed believe that in 2022 the whole world and Russia should wait for the "continuation of the banquet." In the best case, the cost of food in Russia will remain at the last year's level. The average value of the Food Price Index last year was 125.7 points, which is 28.1% higher than in 2020. Such data is provided on its official website by the UN FAO (Food and Agriculture Division of the United Nations).

For example, the sugar price index rose 29.8% over 2020, the highest since 2016.

The average value of the index for dairy products was 16.9% higher than the level of 2020. At the same time, prices for cheese slightly decreased due to an increase in its production in the EU.

By the end of 2021, the index for vegetable oils reached an all-time high - an increase of 65.8% at once compared to 2020.

Corn prices last year rose 44%, wheat - 31%, but rice prices fell 4%.

In normal economic conditions, high prices lead to an increase in production, said Abdulreza Abbassian, senior economist at UN FAO. “But the rise in resource prices, the ongoing global pandemic and increasingly unpredictable weather conditions leave little hope for the stabilization of the situation in the food market in 2022,” Abbassian said.

The rise in world food prices will inevitably affect the Russian market as well. This forecast was given by the head of A Just Russia - For Truth, Sergei Mironov. “It will, of course, although I don’t consider it a determining factor,” the deputy said.

According to Mironov, food products are likely to continue to rise in price in the coming year, since “the basic causes of food inflation remain - the depreciation of the ruble, the rise in the price of gasoline and transportation, the rise in tariffs of natural monopolies, the dependence of farmers on imported fertilizers, spare parts, seed material ".

And the low incomes of Russians, although they affect the retail pricing policy, are not in a position to have a significant impact on prices, the politician believes. “You still can't do without food, so in this area the demand will always be at a fairly stable level,” Mironov emphasized.

At the same time, the possibility of reducing food prices exists, the deputy said. “Today retail chains rob both producers, whom they underpaid, and buyers, with whom they fight at exorbitant prices. What reasonable prices can we talk about with markups of 200-300%? It is high time to limit the markup on products for retail - so that it was no more than 15%, ”Mironov urged.

He is also confident that it is necessary to adjust the rates for acquiring - a payment for the fact that buyers can pay by bank transfer. “In developed countries, these tariffs do not exceed 0.3%. Acquiring in Russia is on average 10 times more expensive, with some banks it reaches 5%. This is practically a hidden tax, ”Mironov noted.

Rivers of milk may become shallow

The branch unions prefer not to make direct forecasts, fearing the claims of the Federal Antimonopoly Service on price manipulation.

For example, the National Union of Milk Producers indicates the rising cost of raw materials and production. That is, on those factors that largely form the prices of both the wholesale and retail links. According to the general director of Soyuzmoloko Artem Belov, on average, the cost of producing a liter of milk increased by 15-16% in 2021. The cost of processing has also significantly increased - by 14-16% (depending on the category of dairy products).

“There have been a lot of drivers of cost growth in recent years: these are feed, and the devaluation of the national currency, mineral fertilizers, electricity, diesel fuel, indexation of workers' wages,” Belov explains.

For example, the price of oil cake increased by 48% over the year, compound feed for cattle - by 25%, feed grain - by 20%. Some mineral fertilizers have risen in price by more than 100%. Packaging has increased significantly in price, as it is mainly sourced from overseas, adds an industry official.

At the same time, the increase in the cost price is not compensated by the increase in the price on the shelf in the conditions of the decrease in the real disposable income of the population.

“Producers until now have preferred to sacrifice their profitability while maintaining consumption. However, this year many have run out of this buffer, and this situation will inevitably put pressure on prices, "says Belov.

In 2022, some of the farms will have to make a decision either to reduce the number of cattle and reorient activities, for example, to crop production, or to think about transforming diets in order to make them cheaper, which entails a decrease in milk productivity and milk production, ”says a representative of the dairy industry.The cost of a liter of milk will also depend on the policy of the state, Belov said. The dairy industry is traditionally characterized by high capital intensity, long payback periods (up to 15 years) and low profitability (8-9%). Dairy producers expect that the measures of state support for the sector in 2022 at least will not be reduced. “The Ministry of Agriculture previously allocated an additional subsidy to milk producers for the purchase of feed in the amount of RUB 10.5 billion,” recalls the head of Soyuzmoloko Belov.

Loaned potatoes

Director of the National Union of Fruit and Vegetable Producers Mikhail Glushkov also relies on government assistance, while avoiding making price forecasts. “On the eve of the new year, the government posted an interesting document for discussion on the federal portal of draft regulatory legal acts. It talks about changing the rules for granting subsidies to banks to reimburse the lost income on loans. We are talking about loans issued to agricultural producers. Lending conditions are deteriorating, ”says Glushkov.

In particular, it is proposed to reduce the percentage of subsidies for loans received after 2017 - from 100% of the key rate to 70% of the key rate.

In addition, it was previously established that the effective interest rate on a concessional loan should not exceed 5%. Now it is proposed to increase this figure to 7%.

“This can lead to extremely negative consequences for agricultural producers. Banks will simply shift their problems onto agricultural borrowers. These changes may affect not only those who plan to take a soft loan in the agro-industrial complex, but also those who have already been using borrowed funds since 2017, ”says Glushkov.

The Potato Union provided data on price increases over the past three years for “unwashed potatoes in a 25 kg net”. It follows from them that the price of a kilogram of potatoes has gone up sharply since March 2019, having almost doubled - from 10 rubles per kg to 18 rubles.

In 2020, the price rose to 23 rubles. per kg. According to available data for 2021, potato prices are kept in the corridor of 20-31 rubles.

"Black swans" of the meat industry

According to the chairman of the board of the Russian Meat Union Mushegh Mamikonyan, the main problem of the industry remains biological safety in poultry and animal husbandry. In the past year, outbreaks of African swine fever have been reported in several regions. Because of this, there was a slowdown in the growth rate of pork production.

“The main thing is that the next“ black swan ”- bird flu or African swine fever - does not come. None of the manufacturers in any country is immune from this. If this happens, the supply on the market will decrease, and prices will react accordingly, ”Mamikonyan says.

If the “black swan” is dispensed with, the prices for meat in the coming year will remain at the level of the last year, Mamikonyan predicts. “If there is a rise in prices, it will not exceed 6-7%, that is, it will be even lower than the inflation rate,” Mamikonyan notes.

He clarifies that the Russian market now practically does not depend on imports of poultry and pork, these types of meat products are exported. “But in order to stifle price increases, last year the government decided to establish a tariff discount on the import of 100 thousand tons of pork and 200 thousand tons of beef in 2022. These import volumes will put pressure on the market, and the price of meat, in theory, should not grow, ”says Mamikonyan.

This measure has a downside - manufacturers are unhappy. “Meat producers believe that the privilege for importers may lead to the fact that there will be too many products, prices will fall, and profitability will decrease. Now the Russian market is saturated even without imports, there is enough domestic meat. But there is a chance that the government will reverse this decision if prices drop significantly, ”adds Mamikonyan.

He also believes that meat consumption in Russia will not grow at a noticeable pace, which will also limit price increases. “The Russians are already consuming meat more than the norm, which was determined by the Ministry of Health. The norm is 74 kg per year per capita, and the consumption is already 76-77 kg. That is, a further increase in meat consumption is not very expected. Maximum - by 1-2% per year. This factor will also contribute to the stabilization of prices, ”concludes Mamikonyan.

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