Russia (bbabo.net), - The launch of Nord Stream 2 will mean a serious increase in budget spending for the United States. First of all, to support the economy of Ukraine. Therefore, the United States will try by any means to prevent the launch of the gas pipeline - blackmailing Europe, using the "green agenda" or applying sanctions against it.
Linking possible sanctions against Nord Stream 2 and countering Russia is quite difficult, if you at least get a little deeper into the essence of the issue. The budget of our country receives income from gas exports (duty 30%), regardless of the route of supply. The volume of gas exports from Russia is not limited by infrastructure. Unused transit capacities through Ukraine make it possible to increase supplies to the West by 90 billion cubic meters from the level of pumping in 2021.
Additional costs for transit through Ukraine are borne by Gazprom, but thanks to record gas prices last year and their maintenance at a high level, at least in the first half of this year, all losses, possible and potential, have been reimbursed. Also, all the costs for the construction of the non-operating Nord Stream 2 were paid off, which became known back in the fall of 2021.
As a result, it is not entirely clear how, in the opinion of the initiators of the sanctions, the non-launch of Nord Stream 2 should have a “disastrous” effect on the Russian economy? Discarding political motives, which are poorly measured by numbers, let us turn to pure economics. From 2014 to 2021, the United States allocated $7.6 billion for official assistance to Ukraine alone, not counting guarantees for government loans from Kiev, which are estimated at more than $1 billion. It should be noted that the funds allocated under the security line, that is, military assistance does not exceed 25% of this amount, the main part was invested in supporting the country's economy.
Ukraine receives up to $3 billion for the transit of Russian gas, explains Artem Tuzov, executive director of the capital market department at Univer Capital. Ukraine's budget revenues for 2021 amounted to $39 billion against expenditures of $46 billion, i.e. the budget deficit amounted to $6.2 billion. In 2024, when the agreement between Russia and Ukraine on gas transit ends, the figures will be different, but the loss of revenues of 3 billion will increase the budget deficit by almost 50%, the expert specifies.
According to the calculations of the Ukrainian side, if Russian gas exports are switched to Nord Stream 2, the country's GDP ($200 billion in 2021) will decrease by 0.9% ($1.8 billion), notes an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Valery Andrianov. But the losses will not only be direct. Now the gas transmission system (GTS) of Ukraine, focused on the transit of Russian gas, is served by about 50 thousand employees. Most of them will be unemployed. Moreover, the termination of Russian transit means a transition from a virtual reverse to a real one. In fact, it will be necessary to rebuild the entire national gas supply system, new logistics, Andrianov emphasizes.
According to the investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company Sergey Suverov, the real reverse will not be much more expensive than the virtual one, by about $10 per thousand cubic meters.
But for the Ukrainian GTS to work, a lot of technical gas is needed, the level of which is now maintained due to the need for its transit from Russia. The final gas price for citizens and enterprises of Ukraine will be higher than the cost of maintaining the GTS and technical gas. It can be assumed that this will add another 15-20% to the exchange price of gas, specifies Tuzov.
It is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to find funds for all of the above with a budget deficit at the expense of internal resources. We have to rely only on outside help - primarily from the United States. Given the approximate losses of the Ukrainian economy, the United States will have to increase financial support to Ukraine at least twice. For the United States, spending is not prohibitive, but it is hardly possible to explain their meaning to American taxpayers. And there with it strictly. Therefore, it is much easier and cheaper to stop Nord Stream 2 as a project threatening Europe's energy security.
Meanwhile
At the end of January, a feasibility study for the construction of the Soyuz-Vostok gas pipeline was completed. It will be a continuation of the Russian gas pipeline "Power of Siberia-2" and will allow to supply about 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year to the most dynamically growing Chinese gas market in the world. Construction is scheduled to start in 2024.
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