Russia (bbabo.net), - An increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia will lead to an increase in the cost of mortgage loans, rental rates and an increase in demand for secondary housing, experts say. The Central Bank raised the rate immediately by one percentage point - from 8.5% to 9.5%. And, probably, its rise will continue.

Banks will soon respond to the increase in the key rate, mortgage rates may rise to 11-12%, says Mikhail Chernov, co-founder of the Refin.Online service. "In order to maintain the interest of potential borrowers in mortgages, the market may try to reduce real estate prices. The most difficult thing to do is with new buildings: with a high key rate, loans for developers also become more expensive, an additional factor is the increase in the cost of building materials. At the same time, the government has not yet announced launching new preferential programs to support the market," he says. Demand for new buildings is expected to decline, secondary housing will become more popular - it will be more profitable for resale sellers to sell an apartment at a lower price than to wait for the market to stabilize, which may drag on for months.

“In the coming months, a further increase in the key rate and an increase in mortgage rates are not excluded,” Chernov notes. “As for the long-term forecast, the dynamics will largely depend on whether the Central Bank’s measures will help stop inflation. According to the Central Bank’s forecast, inflation will may increase to 5-6% (instead of the expected 4-4.5%). If these figures can be reduced to 4%, then mortgage rates are likely to stabilize and even decrease slightly."

“Inflation curbing remains the main task of the Bank of Russia. To a certain extent, the regulator achieves its goals,” says Kirill Kulakov, president of the SRO “Regional Association of Appraisers”, professor at NRU MGSU, Kirill Kulakov. “For the real estate market, this means a certain slowdown. A number of development projects will be frozen. Construction contracts worth more than a trillion rubles were terminated in 2021. The cost per square meter has increased both in residential properties and in the commercial real estate segment. This is due to two factors: an increase in the cost of funding and an increase in prices for building materials. Developers have to recalculate the economics of previously launched projects" .

The housing market will continue to increase mortgage rates, and with it the reduction in effective demand, said Kulakov. Even the extension of the state program of preferential mortgages is unlikely to return the previous dynamics of demand.

The growth of the key rate, inflation rates lead to an inevitable increase in the cost of mortgage loans, says Alexey Galtsev, founder of Realiste. Expensive mortgages will make buying property unaffordable or unprofitable for many. At the same time, the cost per square meter, in his opinion, will continue to grow at the level of inflation.

"We recommend waiting and investing money in reliable instruments. Against the backdrop of an increase in the key rate, deposit rates will also rise now - you can invest money at 10% in a bank and eventually save up for an apartment so as not to overpay huge mortgage interest. All this time you can live in a rented apartment, which is much more profitable.

If, nevertheless, it is decided to buy an apartment, then you should pay attention to underestimated locations, which can rise in price by 20% per year, the expert adds. There are even those in the Moscow region - for example, Domodedovo (expected growth of + 22%) or Shchelkovo (+ 20%), Galtsev believes.

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