The dollar may rise in price to 103 rubles due to the possible introduction of anti-Russian sanctions against the backdrop of a tense situation with Ukraine. Forbes writes about this, citing data from BCS Global Markets analysts.

Experts predicted that if sanctions are imposed on Russia, it will face three possible scenarios. Thus, according to a tough scenario, restrictions will be introduced against Nord Stream 2, state corporations and the country's public debt, as well as disconnecting it from the SWIFT international banking system. Because of this, the country's GDP will decline over the course of two years by a total of 4.7%. The Russian economy will shrink by 2.6% in 2022, and the ruble may collapse to 103 rubles with inflation at 12.8%.

In case of moderate sanctions, the ruble will depreciate by 15% to 88 rubles per dollar. GDP growth will slow down to 1.4%, and inflation will be 7.9% per year.

If the sanctions are soft, they will affect only individuals and certain companies. The ruble will weaken only by 6% to 81 per dollar, while inflation will be at the level of 6.6%. GDP growth will slow down to 2.4%.

According to the baseline scenario, if sanctions are not imposed, the ruble will gradually strengthen to 74.8 per dollar by the end of 2022. Inflation will be at the level of 5.1%. The growth of the Russian economy will be at the level of 2.8%.

On January 28, Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments, said that the ruble could strengthen if the discount for geopolitical risks, which has increased significantly over the past month, is reduced. According to his forecasts, the ruble, in the event of a favorable set of circumstances, will return to the range of 72-76 per dollar.

bbabo.Net