Russia (bbabo.net), - A significant increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia from 8.5 to 9.5 percent per annum will have a significant impact on various components of financial markets. And, first of all, it will affect the sphere of lending.

Especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta, TeleTrade chief analyst Mark Goykhman told how the loan rate will change and what to expect from the ruble exchange rate in the near future:

- An increase in the percentage at which the Central Bank lends to commercial banks leads to an increase in the cost of resources for them. This, as a rule, directly transfers the rise in price to the credit products of themselves. This happens during the first weeks after the rate increase.

In addition, the decision of the Central Bank should be considered more widely. The regulator is extremely resolutely set on a ruthless fight against inflation, with inflationary expectations pushing up prices. Therefore, he indicated a high probability of further tightening of his policy and an increase in the key rate in the coming months. Its range could average 9-11 percent in 2022, according to CBR head Elvira Nabiullina.

This means that in many cases banks will also start working "in advance".

In addition to the policy of the Central Bank, interest on loans is also affected by the general situation, in particular, the level of inflation, the degree of competition, demand and incomes of the population.

According to the latest published data from the Central Bank of Russia, the average cost of bank loans to individuals for a period of more than one year was 10.73 percent at the beginning of 2022, including 13.9 percent for car loans. In those conditions, the consequences of the previous increase in the Central Bank's rate on December 18 from 7.5 to 8.5 percent per annum were not yet fully manifested.

Considering all these factors, it can be assumed that in February-March 2022, these loans will rise in price by an average of about 12.5-13 percent, and car loans - by 15.5-16 percent.

Mortgages are already issued in February 2022 in the top 15 banks at an average rate of about 10.5 percent, according to the calculation of DOM.RF. After the new decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, it may rise above 11-12 percent.

At the same time, according to the principle "there is no blessing in disguise", the policy of the regulator has a big plus for citizens in the form of raising deposit rates, increasing the yield of investments in government and corporate bonds. This is also one of the goals of the Central Bank.

What to expect from the ruble after the turbulent events on Friday

For the ruble exchange rate as a whole, the increase in the key rate is a supporting factor. Since it leads to an increase in the profitability of investments in rubles and demand for them, as well as to an increase in the inflow of foreign investment, the supply of foreign currency on the market.

But the verdict of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Friday was expected and has already been taken into account by the ruble exchange rate as one of the drivers of its strengthening in recent days. This is largely why the price of the ruble did not rise after the announcement of the Central Bank's decision.

Unexpected factors act much more strongly on the course. This was how it turned out at the very end of the day on February 11, when US President Joe Biden suddenly appealed to American citizens to immediately leave Ukraine.

It was made against the backdrop of a decrease in the escalation of the situation around Ukraine in recent days, the development of negotiation processes. Therefore, the dollar reacted quite violently. At the end of the day and week, its rate jumped from 75 to 77.2 rubles, the euro rate - from 85.8 to 87.6 rubles.

In the coming days and in the future, the previous triggers will be the main ones for the course. This is the geopolitical situation around Ukraine, the policy of leading central banks, energy prices and so on. Additional intrigue is created by the unscheduled closed meeting of the US Federal Reserve announced for February 14.

It is being convened, likely due to an unexpectedly strong rise in US inflation to 7.5 percent, noted in the information on February 10th.

Investors will also pay attention to data on eurozone GDP on Tuesday. On retail sales, US oil inventories and the minutes of the previous Fed meeting on Wednesday. And on the report on the monetary policy of the European Central Bank on Thursday.

If there is no sudden additional aggravation of the geopolitical situation, the ruble exchange rate may stabilize.

But its current range expected next week is wide precisely because of the specified uncertain triggers. It is 74.6-79 rubles per dollar and 84.8-89 rubles per euro.

bbabo.Net