Russia (bbabo.net) - An event on Tuesday and even throughout December was a sharp daily rise in gas prices in Europe: from 1700 to 2200 dollars and more per thousand cubic meters. This is largely due to the reduction in supplies via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline and the postponement of the certification of Nord Stream 2.
Against this background, the price of oil as an alternative resource also rose. But the increase was relatively small, from $ 71.7 to $ 73.5 per barrel of Brent. But the ruble exchange rate did not particularly react to this, deviating by 2-3 kopecks up and down from the level of 74 rubles per dollar.
Especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta, TeleTrade chief analyst Mark Goikhman explained how the ruble will behave in the future. He also spoke about expectations from the ruble in 2021:
- Significant statistics will be released on Wednesday. Oil reserves in the United States, as experts suggest, fell by 2.6 million barrels over the week. If this forecast comes true, oil and the ruble may receive additional stimulus.
And for the positioning of the dollar in Forex, the data on the US GDP, which is expected to rise by 2.1% in the third quarter, will be important.
From Russian news, investors will pay attention to the volume of industrial production in November. It is estimated to have grown 5% yoy, up from 7.1% in October.
Until the end of the week, the course can also be affected by opposing drivers. December 23 big press conference of Vladimir Putin. Such an event usually acts as a positive for the Russian currency.
On the same day, there will be data on unemployment, consumer inflation, personal income and spending in the United States. Then, trading activity will gradually fade, since already from December 24, volumes will be limited due to the holidays in the United States.
The ruble for the current and early next week will also be supported by the tax period with the sale of foreign currency by exporters. On the other hand, New Year's bonuses, closing of positions by non-residents and converting rubles into foreign currency will start playing against the Russian currency.
Thus, there is a likelihood of low rate fluctuations due to the uniform opposite influence of various drivers. The most probable range of the exchange rate movement for the current week is 73.1-74.9 rubles per dollar and 82.5-84.1 rubles per euro.
On the whole, summing up the results of the outgoing year for the ruble exchange rate, one should note its rare stability. At the beginning of the year, against the backdrop of the ongoing pandemic, it could be assumed that it was weakening, especially with the experience of the dollar rate soaring to 81 rubles in 2020. However, this did not happen due to many circumstances.
In particular, this is the general weakening of the dollar in the world in the first half of 2021, the soft policy of the leading central banks and optimism in the markets of risky assets, an unexpected rise in the prices of energy carriers and other export goods.
The ruble spent this year doing well, exactly, on average at 74-75 rubles per dollar, where it ends. Downward and upward deviations were limited to the levels of 69 and 78 rubles per dollar, which should be recognized as relatively low volatility.
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