Russia (bbabo.net), - Young Russian scientists as part of an international research group analyzed the impact of extremely high and low temperatures on the economy of Russian regions and came to the conclusion that global warming is already affecting it negatively. And we are not talking about damage from large-scale natural disasters and serious investments in decarbonization. This is yet to come, but for now, the most vulnerable to the surprises of the weather turned out to be a working person.
Earlier, Vladimir Otrashchenko, a researcher at the Justus Liebig University of Giessen, and Olga Popova, an associate professor at the Leibniz Institute for Eastern and Southeastern European Studies, found that a prolonged increase in temperatures increases mortality and has a criminogenic effect. Now the young researchers have analyzed the impact of heat and cold on the economy. What we will have to face in the coming years, which regions will be the most vulnerable and how business and the authorities should prepare for this, Olga Popova said.
Olga, what makes your scientific work unique?
Olga Popova: Previous studies of the impact of extreme temperatures on the economy have mostly looked at the issue at the country level. We went down below - to the regions. Another feature is that we analyze the impact on the economy not only of single days with unusually hot or frosty weather, but also of prolonged - at least three days - heat and cold waves. This is also done for the first time in world practice.
You relied on the information of Rosstat and Roshydromet for 2000-2015 - this is a huge amount of data. But if weather data can be found for every day and even every hour, how can it be compared with economic indicators?
Olga Popova: There is a technique. We aggregate daily reports of weather stations by region using statistical approaches. As a result, we get some average figures for each region, and then we turn the daily data into annual ones: we count how many days a year in a certain region had abnormally high or low temperatures (below -23° or above +25° С). In some years, there are more sharp temperature jumps, in some - less, or they are shorter. Further, this picture must be superimposed on economic indicators. We used an integrated approach: we considered how temperature affects the gross regional product (GRP), the distribution of income by population groups, the level of poverty, and the economic inequality of regions. In addition, they were compared with data on unemployment and the structure of employment in different industries. Many indicators have been used.
Last summer in our region turned out to be extremely hot, and atypically high temperatures lasted an unusually long time, even there was a feeling that we do not live in the Urals, but in a more favorable climate.
Olga Popova: Climate changes are taking place, and every year there will be more and more such abnormally warm seasons. Previously, in the Urals and Siberia, winters were more frosty, and summers were cool. Now winters are getting warmer and almost every summer will be hot. I note: the average number of days with temperatures above +25°C in Russia has doubled over the past 20 years. The negative effect of this is already manifesting itself, because the economy is not yet ready for such climate changes.
What is the mechanism of influence of extreme temperatures on GRP?
Olga Popova: First of all, they affect labor productivity and working hours. High temperatures can have an impact on health, causing high blood pressure, increased heart rate, etc. In extreme heat, cognitive abilities decrease, work productivity drops, both for those who work outdoors and for those who work in an office or shop. Another person in a strong heat will prefer not to work at all or change their field of activity, that is, unemployment is growing. Another relationship: drought leads to crop failure, which affects food prices, and their growth leads to a drop in real incomes of the population. By the way, we also revealed the following pattern: poor regions suffer from natural disasters more than rich ones.
Ten abnormally hot days a year lead to a drop in GDP per capita of almost two percent, which is a tangible lossOur study showed that a sequence of at least three extremely hot days (when the average daily temperature rises above +25°C) negatively affects gross domestic product (GDP): each subsequent such day reduces real GDP per capita by 0.19 percent . Thus, ten abnormally hot days a year lead to a drop in GDP per capita of almost two percent, which is considered a tangible loss. At the same time, individual hot days do not have a noticeable effect on the regional economy: economic activity does not stop for such a period.
Which regions of Russia are more affected by such natural phenomena?
Olga Popova: Everyone suffers, but in cold areas it is still less pronounced. Thus, a noticeable increase in the number of hot days is observed in the Central, Southern, North Caucasian, Volga and Siberian federal districts, but in the North-Western, Urals and Far East there are no changes on average. Accordingly, in the Urals, the impact of warming on GRP is also less significant than in the southern regions. This is also related to the structure of the economy: in warm regions by Russian standards, there is more work in the open air and, naturally, they are more susceptible to the described phenomena. The northern regions are also affected, but less.
It turns out that extreme heat hits the economy more than cold? Why?
Olga Popova: People are better protected from cold temperatures: there are permanent buildings, warm clothing, there are regulations governing outdoor work in cold weather. In cold regions, earlier retirement means that older people do not work in such harsh conditions. But due to global warming, cold temperatures are getting smaller. It turns out that if Russia has any advantage in this regard, it will be gradually lost: a number of studies show that in Russia over the past decade, the increase in average temperatures is 2.5 times higher than on the planet as a whole - by 0.47 degrees versus 0.18.
However, the northern territories may even benefit to some extent from such an influence, since here the climate becomes a little milder and more favorable. For example, our calculations show that extremely hot days can increase the influx of labor to relatively colder regions. Almost all regions of the Urals Federal District, except, perhaps, the Kurgan region, are just such - here the drop in GRP will be less pronounced, but migration to such regions will increase.
What role does the degree of urbanization of territories play?
Olga Popova: We did not consider this indicator in our study, but it is known from previous studies that high temperatures are more difficult to tolerate in cities: buildings, asphalt accumulate heat, do not have time to cool down overnight after a hot day, there are less free air movement than in rural areas. This reduces labor productivity in urban areas.
Do your conclusions allow you to give any recommendations to the authorities of the regions, local businesses, how to reduce the negative impact of weather extremes?
Olga Popova: The economy, like a person, is able to adapt to climate change: there are more opportunities for air conditioning, the use of energy-saving materials in the construction of buildings, the development of unmanned technologies, etc. Accordingly, support for modernization is very important industry from the authorities, especially in such an industrial region as the Urals. Migration policy measures, such as encouraging retraining, may become more relevant. By the way, business owners in the long run are also able to redirect their resources to industries that are less vulnerable to temperature extremes.
We should not forget that economic activity is a priori associated with high carbon dioxide emissions, which is precisely what leads to global warming. Therefore, the transition to renewable energy, the introduction of energy-saving technologies, the modernization of production will both slow down the warming and adapt to it.
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