Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in an address to his parliament, promised to return Ukraine to "the bosom of our Slavs." The politician is sure that the West is trying to "drown the Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood in blood," so the connection between the Slavic peoples must be saved. Experts on the region talked about scenarios in which Kiev can really return to positive relations with Moscow and Minsk. Normalization of relations in the Moscow-Kiev-Minsk triangle is unlikely in the current conditions, when fears of an imminent war are heard everywhere. However, a number of experts still allow the return of the three countries to the primary post-Soviet configuration, when the countries did not yet consider each other as a source of military threat.

In their opinion, the question comes down to what price the parties are willing to pay for normalization and whether they will have to resort to the participation of geopolitical opponents of Moscow and Minsk to "return" Ukraine.

Scenario #1. Only with the help of the United States

Director of the Kiev Center for Political Studies and Conflict Studies Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that Kiev will be able to normalize relations with its former CIS neighbors only if the United States and Russia join forces to resolve the "Ukrainian issue".

“Moscow and Minsk will not be able to resolve this issue alone. However, in the new security system agreed with the United States, everything is possible, ”said the Ukrainian political scientist in a conversation with.

According to Pogrebinsky, the United States should abandon the positioning of Ukraine as "anti-Russia". Moreover, Kiev's Western partners should adjust Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy in such a way that the local establishment would also abandon its "anti-Russian" identity, Pogrebinsky believes.

“If Moscow succeeds in pushing the West to make the necessary adjustments in the security system, then the parties may also agree to adjust Ukraine's domestic policy.

Moreover, it is necessary to stop the process in which Ukraine is being made a springboard to contain Russia, ”the political scientist explained.

Adjustment of the internal political course of Kiev with the help of the United States does not mean that Ukraine will become an obedient state to Moscow, the political scientist noted. The country, according to Pogrebinsky, should take a course towards returning to the original version of relations with Moscow, which was proclaimed in the declaration of independence. That is, to refrain from joining military blocs.

“If the threat of invasion and occupation is ruled out, I see no reason why Ukrainian policy cannot be adjusted by US and Russian forces. But for this, Kiev must refuse to support nationalist organizations and begin to comply with European standards in terms of freedom of speech and human rights, since both the media and the opposition are under pressure in the country, ”the expert said.

Western countries are beginning to understand that Russia is not satisfied with the US attempt to maintain an “anti-Russian” identity, which is expansionist in nature, the political scientist notes.

Scenario #2. By the forces of Ukrainians

Director of the Council on Foreign Relations "Minsk Dialogue" Evgeny Preygerman, for his part, expressed the opinion that the only way to normalize Russian-Ukrainian relations is to come to an understanding that Ukraine wants to be a "link" and a kind of "bridge" between Russia and the West, and not part of one of the military blocs.

“I think that this is not just a matter of Ukraine's subjectivity in the foreign policy arena. In the Ukrainian elite, many people, for one reason or another, are pursuing an anti-Russian line. Someone sincerely believes that it is in their interests. In any case, this hinders normalization,” the expert said.

It is very important that Ukrainians themselves are aware of the strategic prospects and challenges that the country has faced over the past few years, Preygerman added.

“Big processes are driven by big players. But it is not uncommon for the tail to wag the dog, when small countries aggravate the situation so much that they confuse the big players. It is important to state that Ukraine has a certain subjectivity even today. But it is important that it be strategically thought out, ”the expert concluded.

Scenario #3. Silovoy

Program Director of the Valdai Club, MGIMO Professor Oleg Barabanov expressed a different opinion in a conversation with. According to him, the only reliable option for "returning" Ukraine to allied relations with Moscow and Minsk is by force. The expert believes that the current Russian-Ukrainian relations are in a deep crisis, the solution of which is not yet visible exclusively through diplomatic methods.

“One option that is talked about a lot is a military one, that is, a political regime change in Kiev. But then again, as Zelensky’s experience has shown, even the coming to power of a person who advocated peace and normalization with Russia in the election program does not guarantee anything. Despite the fact that Zelensky’s ideas aroused the support of the electorate, in practice he failed to implement anything due to resistance from political opponents within the country and the West,” Barabanov stressed.

“Even if we imagine the arrival of a new president under the same slogans of restoring peace with which Zelensky went, he is unlikely to be able to do anything. With the current political status quo, the crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations is almost impossible to resolve,” he added.

The expert admitted that Moscow can implement a military strategy that will be aimed at separating the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. However, according to Barabanov, such actions will dramatically change the entire military-political situation in the world.

“In the medium term, until the situation with Donbass is resolved by peace or war, Russia and Ukraine are doomed to confrontation,” the professor concluded.

bbabo.Net