The "patron of the Turkmens" Gurmanguly Berdimuhamedov decided that power in Turkmenistan should be handed over to the young, after which early presidential elections were scheduled in the country for March 12. Almost guaranteed, the President's successor will be his 40-year-old son Serdar, who will not get all the levers of power in his hands. I figured out whether the Turkmen leader was really going to retire and whether changes were possible in the most closed republic of the former USSR.

The road to the young

The presidential election campaign started on February 14 in Turkmenistan, after the president of the country and part-time Arkadag - the “patron of the Turkmens” - Gurmanguly Berdimuhamedov spoke about his intention to give way to the young.

Berdimuhamedov Sr. explained his decision in the upper house of parliament headed by him (Halk Maslakhaty) by the fact that two years ago he reached the “age of the prophet” (63 years). At the same time, he did not say anything about his complete retirement from politics, or about his successor.

“I support the idea that the road to public administration at a new stage in the development of our country should be given to young leaders. As the chairman of the Khalk Maskhalaty, I intend to further direct my vast life and political experience to this area,” the president said on the 15th anniversary of his coming to power.

The presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Party was nominated by his only 40-year-old son Serdar, who now holds the post of Deputy Prime Minister, the second most important in the country. There is no prime minister in Turkmenistan, as the government is headed by the president.

At the same session of parliament, where Berdimuhamedov Sr. shared his personal plans, the National Program for the Socio-Economic Development of Turkmenistan for the next 30 years was adopted, which was already represented by Serdar. True, no details were given to the public about it.

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Why Berdimuhamedov made up his mind

Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS, said in an interview with Arkadag that a number of factors most likely influenced Arkadag's decision. Among them, the psychological fatigue of Berdymukhammedov from being at the top of power is not excluded.

“He himself said about the age of the prophet, so maybe there really was a certain rethinking.

And the second factor is the situation in Kazakhstan, which has shown that the option of transiting power outside the family is quite fraught. Serious risks for the departing person remain, even despite the constitutional mechanisms. So for the Turkmen authorities it was a signal - how not to act and how to avoid it,” the expert said.

Rafael Sattarov, an international political scientist, expressed the opinion in a conversation with Berdimuhamedov that "Berdimuhamedov is leaving to stay." In his opinion, in Turkmenistan, as in all "neo-feudal regimes with a personalistic flavor", the issue of the transfer of power could become relevant due to the deteriorating health of the leader.

“And, secondly, Berdimuhamedov understands that he is in a crisis in many areas, from which it is not clear how to get out. His name is too toxic for the country to break the deadlock, receive international loans, and restart large energy projects.

And the neighboring countries set an example - first of all, Uzbekistan after the death of Islam Karimov with his course towards the construction of a "New Uzbekistan", and now Kazakhstan.

So why shouldn't Berdimuhamedov get ahead of the inevitable events in such a situation and hand over the reins of power for the construction of a "New Turkmenistan"? This may make it possible to start partnerships with a clean slate, for example, with the European Union,” the expert explained.

Sattarov also recalled that Turkmenistan is sometimes called the Venezuela of Central Asia. In his opinion, in the future this comparison may again become relevant, since "Berdimuhamedov will influence the country from a hospital bed, as Hugo Chavez did in his time."

Pritchin agrees that Berdymukhammedov most likely has no plans to step down completely.

“Using the same Kazakh model, we can assume that Berdymukhamedov will concentrate the main reins of government and power in his hands. But given the relationship within the family, he will have even more mechanisms to control his son and the situation in the country than Nazarbayev,” he said.

Introduced to resume

Arkadag's son Serdar Berdimuhamedov, whose name means "leader" in translation, will almost certainly become the successor. In September 2021, he turned 40 years old, which, according to the Constitution, opened up the opportunity for him to apply for the main post of Turkmenistan.

According to Pritchin, according to the traditions of Central Asia, the transfer of power to the son is the most preferable option.

“Turkmenistan now has such a successor, unlike the cases of Karimov and Nazarbayev, who only had daughters,” he said.Over the past year, Serdar Berdimuhamedov has become more active and visible as a statesman. So, in January of this year, he went on an independent tour to Iran and Uzbekistan, where he met with the presidents of these countries. In April 2021, Berdimuhamedov Jr. came to Kazan for a meeting of the Intergovernmental Council of the EAEU, where Turkmenistan is not included.

Political scientist Sattarov believes that Berdimuhamedov Sr., with his last statement, simply confirmed what had long been suspected both inside the country and in other states.

“Serdar has already visited the necessary capitals of his neighbors, as if introducing them to his resume. In fact, Turkmenistan has long understood who will be in power after Arkadag, if only by the way Serdar has been portrayed by state propaganda for the past three years,” he said.

In the past, foreign media wrote about Serdar as a not very charismatic person, who, moreover, was more interested in business issues than politics. However, his track record looks very impressive - he was Deputy Foreign Minister, Minister of Industry, Governor of Akhal velayat, which at first included the capital Ashgabat. Oppositional Turkmen media wrote about the brutal methods of management during his last post, where the favorite expression in conversations with Serdar's subordinates allegedly became "I'll break my neck."

Berdimuhamedov Jr. received his second higher education at the Russian Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with a degree in international relations. For the first specialty - a process engineer - he studied at home, and later also took courses at the Geneva Center for Security Policy.

Closer to the Nazarbayevs than to the Aliyevs

Turkmenistan remains the most closed country of the former USSR. In terms of political and civil freedoms, it is at the bottom of most international rankings. Berdymukhammedov Sr. has never received less than 89% of the vote in presidential elections, and in the last one in 2017 he scored 97.7%.

Berdimuhamedov Sr. has recently been remembered, to put it mildly, for his ambiguous activities for the head of state, which were broadcast on TV to promote the cult of personality. Among them - reading a rap with a grandson about a gift horse and a number to the song of Justin Timberlake with heirs, pressing the golden barbell bar to the applause of ministers, cycling.

In addition, the head of state wrote many works both on medicine (he is a doctor by education), and on the history of Turkmen cuisine and horses.

In Turkmenistan, along with North Korea, not a single case of COVID-19 has yet been officially registered (it was reported that the word “coronavirus” itself was banned), but the country, just in case, nevertheless purchased a Chinese vaccine against it. There is a growing food crisis, which has even been reported to have caused government "rations" to be handed out.

Pritchin believes that in Turkmenistan, after the change of president, a configuration of power will develop in which the father will remain a key player, and in any case, the son will not have the authority to radically change the political structure of the country even if he wants to.

“Most likely, the same character of the regime will remain for the time being. Only with a future possible departure from the affairs of the elder, Serdar, perhaps, implements some reform projects. But again, all this is possible only in the medium and long term, now you should not expect serious changes, ”the analyst said.

Expert Sattarov admitted that the regime in Turkmenistan may face a number of problems in the near future, including due to the actions of the "gray cardinals".

“Berdimuhamedov has had such figures since Niyazov's time. This is the creator of the personality cult of Turkmenbashi Viktor Khramov, and the chief financial officer of Arkadag Igor Makarov. Even considering the successful example of the transfer of power from father to son in Azerbaijan, one can see that Ilham Aliyev was first “followed” for a long time and helped by Heydar's people - Remiz Mehdiyev and Dilara Seyidzade. And in Turkmenistan there are also people who will faithfully keep the course, help Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov himself not to let go of the levers of power.

In my opinion, the transit to the son does not provide the necessary stability to the regime, since the quality of the elites in Turkmenistan leaves much to be desired. It is worth remembering that for every example of the Aliyevs in Azerbaijan and the Assads in Syria, there are examples of the Nazarbayev families in Kazakhstan and Mubarak in Egypt,” he concluded.

bbabo.Net