Russia (bbabo.net), - The optimistic forecasts of realtors made at the end of 2021 did not come true. Residential property prices in Crimea have not stabilized. Only in January a square meter rose in price by 5-10 percent. What factors will affect pricing this year, the correspondent found out.

In the second half of 2021, comfort-class housing in new buildings in Crimea has risen in price by 23 percent. In December, "odnushki" in Simferopol cost from 4.2 million rubles, in Sevastopol and Yalta - from 8 million. The average price of a studio on the peninsula has grown by 50 percent in six months, from 4 to 6 million rubles, Ekaterina Gress, CEO of IDEM - Real Estate Consultants, said at a regional conference on the Crimean new building market.

At the same time, there are relatively few offers on the market. New apartments are offered for sale in 45 residential complexes, including 79 buildings. Most housing is being built in Simferopol and Big Yalta, and least of all in Sevastopol (as of the end of December 2021, in a city with a population of more than 500 thousand people, there were less than 150 lots from developers). At the same time, Simferopol has the lowest price for comfort class housing - from 102 thousand rubles per square meter, in Yalta and Sevastopol - about 145 thousand rubles per square meter.

According to analysts, restrictions and bans on new construction are seriously heating up prices at resorts. This happened in Sochi, where prices jumped 2.3 times in 2021. According to the head of the marketing and analysis department at Avangard Consulting, Denis Serikov, after the authorities announced a moratorium on the construction of multi-apartment residential buildings, the average price of studios and one-room apartments increased from 219 to 500 thousand rubles per square meter.

In Sevastopol, prices rose for the same reason, Ekaterina Gress believes.

- By the end of the year, Sevastopol approached Yalta in terms of the price of apartments in new buildings due to the small number of proposals, - Gress noted. - There was a rush demand, against this background, developers raised prices almost daily. As a result, there has been a significant increase in six months.

The second significant factor is preferential mortgages. The real estate market of the Russian Federation will react to the growth of the key rate throughout 2022, Mikhail Khorkov, head of the analytics committee of the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers, believes.

- Throughout 2021, we lived in conditions when real purchasing power, based on the income of the population, faded into the background, - said Khorkov. - The market was more affected by the availability of mortgages and the perception by potential buyers of loan rates that were below inflation. People preferred to spend their savings and borrow money rather than save for the future.

According to him, if the real estate market loses stimulation and switches to fully market conditions, then stagnation is inevitable, there will be a decrease, if not prices, then sales volumes. And it will be even more noticeable in the resorts, where real estate is often bought for investment.

- The markets of the Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory, which are located in attractive climatic conditions, have always been influenced by the process of migration and investment overtones, - says Mikhail Khorkov. - In 2021, investment in real estate was largely associated with rising inflation. If we manage to stabilize inflation, then the risks will be reassessed, and we will see an investment decline in the resort markets. In 2022, market activity will gradually decline, and price growth will slow down.

The rise in prices in Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory was also significantly affected by the pandemic and the possibility of remote work.

- Due to restrictions on traveling abroad, people began to travel more in their own country. There was a demand for real estate in the southern regions, which pushed up prices, - added Ekaterina Gress.

Crimean developers note that the cost per square meter was also affected by the rise in prices for building materials. Reinforcement in 2021 has doubled in price, and on average, the cost of construction has increased by 25-30 percent, said Dmitry Gontar, construction director of the Monolit group of companies.

- There are no prerequisites for lowering housing prices, since building materials will not fall in price, - said Gontar. - I believe that in 2022 the price of housing will increase by 10-15 percent of the inflation rate. Estimated price growth per square meter will be about 25-30 percent. A negative factor will be a drop in demand due to the abolition of mortgage programs, but prices will continue to rise. There will be demand for smaller apartments.

Analysts also believe that in 2022 one should not expect a decrease in prices in the Crimea. The first month of the year showed that even amid a decrease in the number of sales, prices continue to rise.- Falling real estate prices in the Crimea is not expected, but the market will be revised - says Ekaterina Gress. - Given the small number of new projects, stagnation will occur, sales will decrease. Prices have reached a certain plateau, and the market must psychologically get used to them. At the same time, developers will enter the market with higher-quality proposals in order to gain a competitive advantage.

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Meanwhile

Sevastopol entered the top five Russian cities, where, in 2021, the average mortgage payment for an apartment purchased on the secondary market grew the most. According to the consulting group S, most of all - almost doubled - mortgage payments grew in Novorossiysk - by 82.4%. In Krasnodar - by 76.4%, in Grozny - by 63.8%, in Sevastopol - by 42.6%, in Astrakhan - by 41.6%. At the same time, according to the Central Bank, Chechnya and Sevastopol are the leaders in 2021 in terms of the highest mortgage rates - 8.21 and 8.12%, respectively.

The RNKB bank, the leader in the number of mortgage loans issued on the peninsula, explained that the average payment on a mortgage loan depends on many factors, but the most important among them is the cost of an apartment. At the same time, on average, for 2021, the cost of one square meter of housing increased by 20-30 thousand rubles. At the same time, the average rate on mortgage loans issued in 2021 increased by 0.5 percentage points on the peninsula.

In RNKB, 30 percent of mortgage loans are issued for the purchase of housing in the primary market, 70 percent - in the secondary market. The average amount of a mortgage loan taken in Crimea and Sevastopol has grown over the year from 2.9 to 3.1 million rubles. In 2022, the bank plans to issue mortgage loans totaling up to 30 billion rubles. In just three weeks of January, the bank issued 1.3 billion. At the same time, in January, the bank received about 4,000 applications for mortgage loans, which is 15 percent more than in December 2021 and 35 percent more than in January 2021.

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