Moscow stated the lack of serious progress in the dialogue with Washington on security guarantees. Russia supports the continuation of negotiations, but does not rule out a military-technical response in the absence of a constructive US approach on this track. The State Duma believes that such a reaction could be the deployment of military bases in Latin America, which is unlikely to be positively perceived in Washington. Experts admit that the parties can still come to a compromise, but definitely not in the near future. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Moscow and Washington have so far failed to make significant progress in the dialogue on security guarantees offered by the Russian side at the end of last year. In an interview with the RT television channel, the minister stated that the Russian Federation would defend a comprehensive approach to these issues.

“We are in correspondence with our American colleagues. We responded to their response to our December initiatives. So far, little progress has been made on fundamental issues.

We will defend the integrated approach. It is impossible to agree seriously and for a long time on applied matters if you have not decided on the conceptual and political basis for interaction,” Lavrov said.

The Minister also stressed that Moscow is interested in continuing the dialogue with Washington. According to him, he agreed with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on a new meeting after the American side familiarizes itself with Russia's reaction to Washington's response on security guarantees - as expected, the parties can meet next week, that is, before February 27.

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How Russia will respond to the failure of negotiations

The Russian Foreign Ministry's written commentary on Washington's reaction to security guarantees was officially published on February 17. In the text, the Russian side stated the absence of a constructive response from the United States to the basic proposals of the Russian Federation. In particular, this concerns the American side's refusal to stop NATO expansion and the withdrawal of the "Bucharest formula", according to which Ukraine and Georgia will become members of the alliance.

This Foreign Ministry statement also notes that "in the absence of US readiness to negotiate, Moscow may resort to military-technical measures."

In a conversation with Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Yuri Shvytkin, he explained that this wording does not mean a transition to an arms race, but Moscow has other opportunities to make the United States think about its own security.

“We have enough military-technical measures that will force the United States to take care of its own security, and not Ukraine, which is too far away from them. For example, the deployment of military bases in Latin America may be part of the answer. The United States is afraid of this, because it will be close enough there for our missiles to fly up. I think that the Americans do not really want the missiles to reach New York or Washington quickly, ”the deputy explained.

According to Shvytkin, Russia also does not want its weapons to come closer to the United States and is doing everything to resolve disputed issues through political and diplomatic means. However, the deputy stressed that NATO's military contingent is being strengthened near the Russian borders, including in Poland, Romania and the Baltic countries.

What is happening with the dialogue on guarantees

It is not yet clear whether the situation will come to a complete cessation of negotiations and the corresponding reaction of Russia. The interviewed experts hold different points of view on this issue. For example, Americanist political scientist Malek Dudakov is sure that the dialogue can still develop as before.

“We see a certain desire on the part of the United States to engage in dialogue with Russia, for example, on arms control and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. That is, on topics that Moscow and Washington always discuss.

Therefore, in the short term, the situation is not completely deadlocked, since negotiations on certain issues will still go on. At the same time, the very fact of the publication of Russia’s requirements and the way we outlined our “red lines” is important in the medium and long term,” the expert said.

At the same time, Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, believes that there is still a deadlock in the negotiations, but Russia hopes to get out of it by increasing pressure and at the same time continuing the dialogue.

“That is, Russia will demonstrate military force and in every possible way make it clear that it is not ready to relax and recognize the impossibility of moving forward along the track of security guarantees. Moscow will continue to make progress in the negotiations, not only arguing its position, but also reinforcing its resolve with some military-technical steps.

Most likely, Russia's actions will be accompanied by a buildup of NATO's military power in the eastern countries of the alliance, and perhaps the bloc's exercises with a virtual test of nuclear weapons.We will get a “who blinks faster” game, which will determine for whom the continuation of the escalation spiral will be less acceptable in the current situation, ”the expert noted.

Is there a chance for a compromise

The parties have taken a principled position on the main issues and are not going to make concessions to each other. According to political scientist Malek Dudakov, progress is still possible, but unlikely in the near future.

“Obviously, the American side will not agree to most of the requirements of the Russian Federation, which are acceptable in the current conditions.

However, in the medium and long term, when the global confrontation between the US and China really flares up, Washington may realize that Moscow is worth having as its ally, and not fighting on two fronts with both Russia and China.

Under such conditions, the United States will be able to understand what concessions they can make in order to restore relations with the Russian Federation and regain lost trust, if possible, ”the expert explained.

From the point of view of Dmitry Suslov of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, the possibility of a compromise on the track of security guarantees will be largely related to the implementation of the Minsk agreements by Ukraine, on which Russia is actively insisting.

“Most likely, Russia will continue to put pressure on this direction, maintaining part of the presence of troops around Ukrainian territory, conducting possible exercises and exerting political and diplomatic pressure on France, Germany and the United States. As a result, if there is serious progress under the Minsk agreements, then the situation will de-escalate to some extent — at least the sharpness and tension that exists today will disappear. But if Ukraine continues to sabotage and categorically refuse to implement the Minsk agreements, and the West does nothing about this, then the situation will escalate, ”the expert concluded.

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