The time of the Russian "invasion" of Ukraine, which was voiced by Western media and politicians, has been repeatedly postponed. At the same time, journalists and high-ranking officials who spoke about specific numbers referred to some sources in the intelligence services of the United States and European countries. I figured out how reliable such sources can be. I am sure that people who are even slightly interested in foreign policy are convinced that all this is propaganda, fakes and fabrications. The main thing is that the authors of these fakes themselves believe in what they are talking about. They daily "spew" forecasts, spells. Politico magazine has already changed the date of the invasion several times. Simultaneously, the head of the [UK] Foreign Office, Elizabeth Truss, said that an 'invasion' could follow at any moment for many months," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with RT on Friday.
Andrey Pilyaev, a former employee of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Russia, believes that the published data “does not look like the results of the activities of the special services.”
“These are just some children's drawings, nothing more. If some intelligence agency received reliable information that another country is preparing an invasion, then it would be very specific information - with a lot of details. Just arrows are rumors. Remember Wikileaks, there was a crazy amount of dispatches, letters, registers that confirmed the operations of a number of NATO countries in Afghanistan, operations in Africa. It was proof. This could be verified. Here we are offered something without any evidence at all,” says Pilyaev.
In turn, military expert Vladimir Popov claims that the intelligence services themselves do not publish such information at all.
“Obtaining reliable and objective operational information about the state of the army of the country of a potential enemy is the prerogative of any intelligence,” Popov said. - At the same time, any intelligence service prefers to work in silence, without advertising its activities. For example, the existence of the Israeli service "Mossad" became known only 30 years after its creation, and this is one of the best intelligence services in the world.
If the intelligence community raises a public voice, it is either an attempt to spread disinformation or evidence of its blatant weakness. When intelligence reports are published, analytical conclusions are voiced that are intended for a limited circle of people, then this is a symbiosis of these two points.”
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service unexpectedly turned out to be among the most informed intelligence agencies in the world. After the forecast of the United States and Great Britain about a Russian attack on the night of February 15-16 did not come true, a new date was announced in Tallinn - the “invasion” will take place in the second half of February. On its website, the Estonian intelligence service has published a map with "offensive" arrows.
“This whole story with Estonian intelligence looks ridiculous and implausible,” said Nikolai Dolgopolov, a writer and publicist, author of many books about Russian foreign intelligence. “It doesn't sound like information, but like disinformation, giving out alleged intelligence to provoke the other side. If the task was set to make the situation worse, then worse than it is, it can no longer be done. The degree of tension was brought almost to the level of the Caribbean crisis, it would be time to stop already, and not add fuel to the fire.
At the same time, Dolgopolov recalls that the Estonian special services have “experience in working against Russia”
“I note that although Estonia is a small state and rarely attends any major international events, the intelligence of this country is working very hard against Russia. And its current forecasts with the dates of "invasions" are not the first time that Tallinn has brought a lit match to the box. Our special services have repeatedly identified, let's say, Estonian intelligence officers who tried to recruit Russian citizens, ”Dogopolov added.
So, in July 2021, Estonian Consul Mart Lyatte was detained in St. Petersburg while trying to obtain confidential information. This was reported to the FSB. Before that, Eston Kohver, an employee of the Tartu department of the Security Police Department of the Estonian Ministry of Internal Affairs, was detained in the Pskov FSB.
Political scientist Alexander Zimovsky doubts the independence of the Estonian intelligence service.
“The Estonian intelligence report is a document that is thrown into the media to stir up the public, and fears are intended for NATO member countries, which must unite against the background of the“ Russian threat ”. And what Tallinn is voicing is not the invention of Estonian intelligence officers, but of their senior colleagues, the Americans”,
Zimovsky says.
bbabo.Net