Russia (bbabo.net), - In the event of an escalation of tension in the Donbass, the Russian Armed Forces can be involved in the defense of the DPR and LPR, and there are now all legal grounds for this. A military expert spoke about when and how they can be used.
Vladislav Shurygin, member of the Izborsk Club:
- Sanctioned by the Federation Council of Russia, the use of our Armed Forces abroad (read - in the Donbass) will certainly affect the situation there. Moreover, it has already been reflected. What Ukraine is doing now on the line of contact is being done, shall we say, with great fear. At least, there is no longer that impudence, greyhound and courage that the Ukrainian military showed a week ago.
At the same time, it cannot stop the violence as such. Ukraine is now unable to abandon the use of military force in the Donbass. Kiev, among other things, is being pushed to this by the internal situation in the country, where radicals demand a tough reaction from Zelensky to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR. Therefore, the Ukrainian military will try to focus on "scorched earth" tactics. They make it so that, as they believe, the earth burns under the feet of the invaders. To do this, they have all the means are good, including terrorist and sabotage acts.
The purpose of such actions is clear. On the one hand, Kiev does not want all this to develop into a big military confrontation with Russia. On the other hand, it seeks to inflict sensitive "shots". How far this will work is an open question. But Ukraine, of course, is now afraid of provoking Russia into a serious response. The last four days have confirmed that no one in the West will “fit in” for it and will not provide direct military assistance to Kiev. At best, the Ukrainians will receive another batch of weapons and ammunition, and then they will have to deal with it themselves.
Further pumping up Ukraine with weapons, in my opinion, will not fundamentally change the situation. With the advent of, let's say, a chess queen on the checkerboard, all the rules of the game will change. When the Armed Forces of Ukraine opposed the armies of the republics of Donbass, such weapons mattered. But if the Russian army, which has a "long arm" in the form of the same huge Aerospace Forces capable of reaching any point in Ukraine, enters into action, this entire Western arsenal will lose serious significance. In tactical terms, in a certain situation, he can create some preferences for the Ukrainians on the battlefield. But no more. In operational and even more so strategic terms, this weapon will not make the weather.
What is Ukraine trying to achieve with its provocations in the Donbass? In my opinion, Kiev is interested or, rather, is used by the West for further well-thought-out actions. It is obvious that they are not going to impose all the sanctions against Russia at once "in chorus". In order for the whole package to be applied, a series of "casus belli" is needed - reasons for war. Therefore, Ukraine is being forced to balance within the framework of a dilemma - Russia must be provoked to use military force. But to provoke without great consequences for Kiev.
This is playing with fire. For example, I assess the situation with the delimitation of the borders of the LPR and DPR very harshly. If they remain along the line of contact of the parties, this is fraught with continuous bleeding. Leaving the Armed Forces at a firing range of 4 kilometers from the center of Donetsk means, in my opinion, making a catastrophic mistake.
I have no doubt that as soon as Ukraine exceeds, cynically speaking, the "norm of violence" in the Donbass, a joint operation with the republics will be carried out to force Kiev to peace. As a result, the borders of the DPR and LPR will be pushed back to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
bbabo.Net