The last phase of the cyber revolution, which will mark the beginning of the next technological order, will begin in 2028, HSE scientists believe. Previously, they predicted the beginning of this phase in 2030, but the COVID-19 pandemic, in their opinion, has shifted the deadline by two years. asked independent experts whether, due to the coronavirus, humanity will “enter” the cyber future earlier.

A new “future”

HSE scientists — Doctor of Philosophy Leonid Grinin, Candidate of Biological Sciences Anton Grinin and Doctor of Historical Sciences Andrey Korotaev — in their latest work, predicted the dates for the transition of humanity to the final stage of the cybernetic revolution accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic. Previously, they believed that the final phase would begin in the 2030s and last until the 2070s. However, at the time of the publication of their previous article in 2015, humanity did not yet know about COVID-19.

In a conversation with Professor Andrey Korotaev, he noted that, despite the description of the same period, due to the pandemic, the timing of the cyber revolution has shifted and may even affect the end of the twenties.

“Earlier, we predicted the beginning of the final phase of the cybernetic revolution in the 2030-2040s, but due to COVID-19, this process has gained even greater speed, and now we can say that this period may begin as early as 2028,” — said the scientist.

According to the researchers, the leading technological areas in the final phase will be medicine, bio- and nanotechnologies, robotics, additive, information and cognitive technologies. Together they will form a complex system of self-regulating production, which scientists call MANBRIC technologies.

Experts also identified the characteristics and trends of the cybernetic revolution, which included the growth of information volumes, the complication of systems for its analysis, and the ability of systems for independent communication and interactivity.

It is noted that the use of increasingly smart technologies and the tendency to humanize their functionality, as well as the creation of self-managed systems to control the individual and social processes, is also important for the technological future.

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a phenomenon that has drawn public attention to health issues. Scientists believe that this has already led to noticeable changes in technology and its distribution in almost all areas of life.

Korotaev also said that medical technologies occupy a central position in the MANBRIK complex, which is why a jump in their development should be expected in the future. He noted that the new stage will affect the increase in life expectancy and the extension of the working age.

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Cybernetic revolution is not far off

CEO of Motive agency&production (cooperates with technology companies and developers of smart systems for digital projects) Sergey Zhitinets agrees with HSE scientists.

“Any shock, pandemic, social problems force society to transform - humanity always reacts to external stimuli, and COVID-19 is no exception. In this sense, we can agree with the authors of the study. The new reality has revealed the problems in which society is most vulnerable.

Even considering that we now have the Internet, a strong army, a peaceful sky, we are vulnerable in many ways - in the social sphere, in matters of management, medicine.

Society will always accurately respond to the situation and transform, including in the technological aspect, ”Zhitinets said in an interview with.

The expert clarified that the main factor will not be the victory over the coronavirus, but the push that it provoked. He shares the opinion of scientists that the changes will affect health systems, government, social security, education and all business sectors. But with the opinion of the authors of the study that it is COVID-19 that is the main reason for the transition to the final stage of the cyber revolution, Zhytinets is ready to argue.

“Society is already on the verge of this cybernetic revolution, which is evidenced by the achieved level in nanotechnologies, the need to modernize production. The time has come to introduce nanotechnological processes and the achievements of artificial intelligence into people's lives, including using them in medicine, the service sector, business, the education system, and ensuring the life of the state. There are a number of reasons that create the very critical mass capable of making technological breakthroughs,” Zhytinets noted.

The expert also believes that this technological breakthrough will happen in the next decade.

The pandemic has made it clear that all communication processes need to be reviewed, as pandemics may recur in the future. Tatyana Aleksandrova, CEO of the neurotechnological company Neiry, told about this in an interview with. She is of the same opinion as Zhytinets - according to her, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a trigger for the accelerated development of MANBRIC technologies.“I also think that because of COVID-19, people have become much more attentive to their health. In this regard, biotechnology in the next few years will be very actively developed.

This applies to all technologies aimed at increasing human life expectancy, effective and happy human life.

Personalized medical technologies will be in great demand. If you give examples, then my favorite Russian projects aimed at personalized medical indicators are Bioniq, Checkme, ”said Alexandrova.

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Cyber ​​revolution is already underway

Konstantin Frumkin, coordinator of the Association of Futurologists and editor-in-chief of the Invest-Foresight portal, in an interview with expressed doubts about the correctness of the judgments of the researchers Grinins and Korotaev.

“The authors are quite right that the pandemic is accelerating digitalization, but the acceleration is a mechanical action that would not matter if all these technologies had not developed before the pandemic, and in the same direction. It is not possible to assess exactly how much the pandemic has accelerated movement in a given direction, since in this kind of forecasting it is precisely the timing that is the least hopeful and predictable thing. In addition, the division of development into phases is a pure convention, and it is impossible to prove or disprove that a new phase has begun. In a sense, the cyber revolution is already underway,” Frumkin concluded.

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