A model that predicts the risk of developing pancreatic cancer was developed by specialists from the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. The scientists described it in more detail in an article in the European Journal of Gastroenterology & Hepatology.

The risk of developing pancreatic cancer is increased in people with diabetes and prediabetes. The researchers developed a predictive model that took into account fasting blood sugar, age, BMI, proton pump inhibitors, total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, alanine aminotransferase, and alkaline phosphatase levels. The researchers identified factors important for predicting risk using a sample of almost 140,000 people with prediabetes, 0.2% of whom developed pancreatic cancer over three years of observation. The median time from detection of prediabetes to diagnosis of cancer was 326 days.

“Over the past few years, our team has been looking to create a model that could identify people at risk for developing pancreatic cancer at the earliest possible stage of the disease, when the tumor can still be removed,” the researchers say.

They hope that the effectiveness of their model will be confirmed in further studies, and in the future the model will be able to be used for the early detection of pancreatic cancer - it is usually diagnosed already at the stage when treatment is practically useless.

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