As noted earlier, by the end of this year, capital expenditures in the semiconductor industry may rise to a record $ 152 billion. expansion of production capacity.
In the early stages of the pandemic, it was fears about the cyclical development of the industry that kept manufacturers from investing additional funds in expanding enterprises. At that time, it seemed to everyone that the impact of the pandemic would be short-lived, and production would quickly catch up in the following months. Now, more and more often, there are forecasts about the transition of demand to a higher base level, which will not decrease in the foreseeable future. PC and CPU makers, for example, are convinced that sales of about 350 million personal computers per year will become the norm for the market in the coming years.
IDC vice president Mario Morales told Nikkei Asian Review that the PC market will not show any growth next year, and the plans of manufacturers to expand their enterprises in the future will most likely have to be adjusted towards lower capital expenditures. Some projects even have to be canceled entirely. It is unlikely that all investment programs that market participants are now talking about will be fully implemented in practice. Manufacturers are afraid to face excess capacity and falling demand, and therefore will be forced to more accurately predict market trends.
Counterpoint Research experts believe that by the middle of the decade, the production of chips using mature lithography will grow by 40%, because it is the lack of specialized capacities that everyone is now complaining about. Against this background, even doubling the volume of production using the most advanced lithography does not seem like something excessive. As analysts explain, advanced lithography starts from a "low base", since now it accounts for no more than 11% of the contract market. When new capacities, sharpened for mature lithography, are commissioned by 2023 or 2024, many companies may face a decrease in demand for specialized products after some period of initial market saturation. Moreover, even now, many customers order much more products than they really need, trying to form increased warehouse stocks in conditions of shortage. When the market situation stabilizes, this amount of production capacity will simply not be in demand.
Perhaps this is the reason why Intel decided to increase its manufacturing capabilities in two stages. First, the company is going to build buildings for new enterprises, and only if there is an urgent need to fill them with technological equipment for further expansion of production. The building itself costs much less than the lithographic equipment, so this tactic would be safer in terms of costs.
bbabo.Net