Russia (bbabo.net), - Will bananas be grown in the Arctic when it is ice-free? How does climate change affect animals and human diseases? The correspondents of Rossiyskaya Gazeta talked about this with Director of the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology named after Academician Israel, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Anna Romanovskaya and Director of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Doctor of Geographical Sciences Alexander Makarov.

Alexander Sergeevich, what are the main problems facing the Arctic in connection with climate change?

Alexander Makarov : The problems are not facing the Arctic, but the society that works more actively, is present and lives in the Arctic. The climate is changing - we are witnessing warming, melting ice.

But the temperature, as well as the amount of ice, changes non-linearly. We are unlikely to reach the point where bananas can be grown in the open field in the Arctic in the next few decades. But a noticeable part of the perennial ice will be lost, and only one-year ice will remain. The zone of icebergs and hummocks will increase, which will have to be crossed or skirted.

The task of scientists is to collect and analyze current data, to understand where we are going. Perhaps the transformation will be dramatic, and over time, the planet will completely change its appearance. There are opinions that the changes are cyclical. The main question here is how long this cycle is: 60 years or 2000. There is no definite answer to this question yet.

How noticeable is the warming at the poles now?

Alexander Makarov : Not everything is so simple. Yes, we are witnessing warming, and there is less ice. But the ice cover decreases only in summer, and in winter the Arctic remains covered with ice.

At the same time, the duration of winter in the Arctic is quite long, sometimes up to ten months. This year, for example, the ice conditions were quite difficult. In the eastern sector of the Russian Arctic, especially in the East Siberian Sea, the ice thickness reached one and a half meters.

Anna Anatolyevna, why did the Far North become a "litmus test"? Why is it there that the manifestations of global warming are most noticeable?

Anna Romanovskaya : This is due to the peculiarities of the general circulation of the atmosphere: the poles get warmer most intensely.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that the land on the planet heats up faster than the surface of the ocean. And given the fact that the land area in the northern hemisphere is larger than in the southern, it means that the growth rate of average annual temperatures is higher there. Therefore, warming is most pronounced in the region of the North Polar Region, the Arctic zone.

For us in Russia, this fact is especially noticeable, because both the length and the total area of ​​the northern latitudes in our country are maximum. Permafrost occupies 65 percent of the RF area.

Is it possible to predict when year-round traffic on the Northern Sea Route will open?

Anna Romanovskaya : According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, if humanity does not make any efforts to combat warming and continues to live as it does now (business-as-usual scenario), then there is a possibility that in some years in September, starting from the middle of this century, the Arctic will be practically free of ice.

It is clear that in winter there will always be ice in the Arctic seas. We are talking about the loss of multiyear ice. Therefore, I do not think that navigation in this part will ever be as safe as in the southern seas.

The risks will remain very high all the time. For example, even with an increase in navigation time, the threat of ice storms will be great. This means that it will be necessary to create special services and courts to counteract these phenomena.

How does the warming affect animals?

Anna Romanovskaya : At our institute, research is being carried out to change the habitats of some arthropods that carry the so-called vector-borne diseases.

For example, scientists have already recorded that there is an expansion of the range of the malaria mosquito, the European forest tick - a carrier of tick-borne encephalitis, borreliosis, tularemia, mosquitoes - carriers of West Nile fever viruses and other exotic for Russia and dangerous diseases of humans and animals.

As temperatures rise, some agricultural pests, such as locusts, for example, can begin to move significantly northward. All these are significant climatic risks that must be taken into account and the medical and veterinary services must be prepared for the development of the situation.

bbabo.Net